Polisi Tanzania vs Pamba Jiji preview
Polisi Tanzania faces Pamba Jiji with a 69% probability of winning according to our model, while Pamba Jiji has just a 12% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with expected goals of 2.50 for Polisi Tanzania and 1.01 for Pamba Jiji. The model indicates a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 59%.
However, the recent form shows Polisi Tanzania with mixed results, recording L-W-L-L-W-W, while Pamba Jiji has struggled with D-W-L-L-L-L. This inconsistency could affect the outcome, making it possible for Pamba Jiji to perform better than expected despite the statistics.
Polisi Tanzania vs Pamba Jiji: model vs market
| Source | Polisi Tanzania | Draw | Pamba Jiji |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 19% | 13% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 69% | 19% | 13% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Polisi Tanzania and Pamba Jiji expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.50
- Attack rating (Polisi Tanzania / Pamba Jiji)
- 1.35 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Polisi Tanzania / Pamba Jiji)
- 1.02 / 1.37
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Polisi Tanzania vs Pamba Jiji score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Polisi Tanzania goals. Columns: Pamba Jiji goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Polisi Tanzania vs Pamba Jiji goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Polisi Tanzania vs Pamba Jiji
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polisi Tanzania | 69% | 1.45 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.40 | |
| Pamba Jiji | 13% | 7.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Polisi Tanzania or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Pamba Jiji) | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Polisi Tanzania win by 2+ | 48% | 2.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Polisi Tanzania and Pamba Jiji recent form
Polisi Tanzania
3W 0D 3L
Pamba Jiji
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Polisi Tanzania at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Pamba Jiji away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Polisi Tanzania at home only, Pamba Jiji away only.
Before and after this match
- Polisi Tanzania, previous: Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania prediction
- Pamba Jiji, previous: Fountain Gate v Pamba Jiji analysis