Fountain Gate vs Pamba Jiji preview
Fountain Gate faces Pamba Jiji with a 38% chance of winning compared to Pamba Jiji's 34%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 9% of the time in our model. Both teams to score has a 55% probability, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides.
Fountain Gate's recent form shows 1 win in 6 matches, while Pamba Jiji has lost 5 of their last 6 games. This could affect the expected goals, with Fountain Gate at 1.38 and Pamba Jiji at 1.28. A draw is also a possibility with a 28% chance, which could change the outcome if both teams struggle to find the net.
Fountain Gate vs Pamba Jiji: model vs market
| Source | Fountain Gate | Draw | Pamba Jiji |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Fountain Gate and Pamba Jiji expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Fountain Gate / Pamba Jiji)
- 0.71 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Fountain Gate / Pamba Jiji)
- 1.30 / 1.44
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fountain Gate vs Pamba Jiji score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fountain Gate goals. Columns: Pamba Jiji goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fountain Gate vs Pamba Jiji goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fountain Gate vs Pamba Jiji
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fountain Gate | 38% | 2.66 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.51 | |
| Pamba Jiji | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fountain Gate or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Pamba Jiji) | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fountain Gate win by 2+ | 18% | 5.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fountain Gate and Pamba Jiji recent form
Fountain Gate
1W 1D 4L
Pamba Jiji
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fountain Gate at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
Pamba Jiji away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fountain Gate at home only, Pamba Jiji away only.
Fountain Gate vs Pamba Jiji head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Fountain Gate 0 · draws 0 · Pamba Jiji 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Fountain Gate | 1-2 | Pamba Jiji | Tanzania Premier League |
| 2025-11-23 | Pamba Jiji | 1-0 | Fountain Gate | Tanzania Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Coastal Union v Singida Black Stars — match page 2026-10-12
- Tabora United vs Young Africans — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Simba vs Mashujaa 2026-10-13
- Geita Gold vs Dodoma Jiji — team news & stats 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Fountain Gate, previous: Fountain Gate vs JKT Tanzania: odds and pick
- Pamba Jiji, previous: Pamba Jiji vs Geita Gold prediction