Pamba Jiji vs Geita Gold preview
In the Tanzania Premier League, Pamba Jiji faces Geita Gold, with the market showing a 45% chance for Geita Gold to win compared to 28% for Pamba Jiji. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.25 for Pamba Jiji and 1.62 for Geita Gold.
Both teams to score is at 58%, while Over 2.5 goals has a probability of 55%. However, Pamba Jiji's recent form is concerning, as they have lost five of their last six matches. If they cannot improve their performance, it could affect the outcome of the match.
Pamba Jiji vs Geita Gold: model vs market
| Source | Pamba Jiji | Draw | Geita Gold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Pamba Jiji and Geita Gold expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.87
- Attack rating (Pamba Jiji / Geita Gold)
- 0.83 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Pamba Jiji / Geita Gold)
- 1.58 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pamba Jiji vs Geita Gold score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pamba Jiji goals. Columns: Geita Gold goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pamba Jiji vs Geita Gold goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pamba Jiji vs Geita Gold
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pamba Jiji | 28% | 3.51 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Geita Gold | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.71 |
| No | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pamba Jiji or draw) | 55% | 1.81 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Geita Gold) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Geita Gold win by 2+ | 24% | 4.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Pamba Jiji and Geita Gold recent form
Pamba Jiji
0W 1D 5L
Geita Gold
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pamba Jiji at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
Geita Gold away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Pamba Jiji at home only, Geita Gold away only.
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