Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar preview
Mbeya City hosts Kagera Sugar with a strong probability of 67% to win according to the model. The expected goals show Mbeya City at 1.80 and Kagera Sugar at 0.54, indicating a potential for a low-scoring match, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0.
However, the recent form of Kagera Sugar, which includes five draws and three losses in their last six matches, could lead to an unexpected outcome. Additionally, both teams to score has a probability of 36%, suggesting that while Mbeya City is favored, Kagera Sugar could still find a way to disrupt the match.
Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar: model vs market
| Source | Mbeya City | Draw | Kagera Sugar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 23% | 10% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 67% | 23% | 10% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.54.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Mbeya City and Kagera Sugar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.33
- Attack rating (Mbeya City / Kagera Sugar)
- 0.86 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Mbeya City / Kagera Sugar)
- 0.70 / 1.57
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mbeya City goals. Columns: Kagera Sugar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mbeya City | 67% | 1.49 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Kagera Sugar | 10% | 10.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.80 |
| No | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mbeya City or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Kagera Sugar) | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mbeya City win by 2+ | 41% | 2.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mbeya City and Kagera Sugar recent form
Mbeya City
3W 1D 2L
Kagera Sugar
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mbeya City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Kagera Sugar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mbeya City at home only, Kagera Sugar away only.
Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Mbeya City 2 · draws 5 · Kagera Sugar 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-23 | Kagera Sugar | 1-0 | Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2022-11-17 | Mbeya City | 2-2 | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2022-03-12 | Mbeya City | 0-1 | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2021-10-16 | Kagera Sugar | 0-0 | Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2021-04-08 | Mbeya City | 0-0 | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2020-10-24 | Kagera Sugar | 1-2 | Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2020-03-04 | Kagera Sugar | 2-3 | Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2019-10-24 | Mbeya City | 1-4 | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2018-05-06 | Kagera Sugar | 0-0 | Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2018-01-02 | Mbeya City | 0-0 | Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
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