Simba vs Young Africans Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Simba vs Young Africans: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Simba	Draw	Young Africans
Model	44%	33%	23%
Market	—	—	—
Published	44%	33%	23%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.75.
Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 5 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Simba and Young Africans expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.15Simba

0.75Young Africans

Total expected goals: 1.91
Attack rating (Simba / Young Africans): 1.72 / 1.81
Defence rating (Simba / Young Africans): 0.46 / 0.50

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Simba vs Young Africans score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.1% 9.9% 4.2% 1.1% 0.2% 1 15.8% 14.2% 4.9% 1.2% 0.3% 2 9.9% 7.4% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 3 3.8% 2.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Simba goals. Columns: Young Africans goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Simba vs Young Africans goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%

Over 1.5 58%

Over 2.5 30%

Over 3.5 13%

Both teams to score: 38%
No goals (0–0): 16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Simba vs Young Africans

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Simba	44%	2.28
	Draw	33%	2.99
	Young Africans	23%	4.40
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	30%	3.35
	Under 2.5	70%	1.42
Both teams to score	Yes	38%	2.66
	No	62%	1.60
Double chance	1X (Simba or draw)	77%	1.29
	12 (either side)	67%	1.50
	X2 (draw or Young Africans)	56%	1.78
Handicap -1	Simba win by 2+	19%	5.15
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer