Mashujaa vs Polisi Tanzania preview
The match between Mashujaa and Polisi Tanzania sees the model giving Polisi Tanzania a 39% chance to win, compared to Mashujaa's 29% and a 31% chance for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% probability. Expected goals suggest Mashujaa will score 1.01, while Polisi Tanzania is projected to net 1.21.
While both teams to score has a 46% chance and Over 2.5 goals sits at 38%, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. Recent form shows Mashujaa with three wins and two losses in their last five matches, while Polisi Tanzania has two wins, two losses, and one draw. This could affect the outcome, making it less predictable.
Mashujaa vs Polisi Tanzania: model vs market
| Source | Mashujaa | Draw | Polisi Tanzania |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 31% | 39% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 29% | 31% | 39% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Mashujaa and Polisi Tanzania expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.22
- Attack rating (Mashujaa / Polisi Tanzania)
- 0.81 / 1.43
- Defence rating (Mashujaa / Polisi Tanzania)
- 0.94 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mashujaa vs Polisi Tanzania score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mashujaa goals. Columns: Polisi Tanzania goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mashujaa vs Polisi Tanzania goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mashujaa vs Polisi Tanzania
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mashujaa | 29% | 3.39 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Polisi Tanzania | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.17 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mashujaa or draw) | 61% | 1.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or Polisi Tanzania) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | Polisi Tanzania win by 2+ | 17% | 5.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Mashujaa and Polisi Tanzania recent form
Mashujaa
3W 0D 3L
Polisi Tanzania
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mashujaa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Polisi Tanzania away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mashujaa at home only, Polisi Tanzania away only.
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