Coastal Union vs Singida Black Stars: model vs market
| Source | Coastal Union | Draw | Singida Black Stars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 22% | 53% |
| Market | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Published | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.44.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Singida Black Stars below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Coastal Union and Singida Black Stars expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.59
- Attack rating (Coastal Union / Singida Black Stars)
- 0.95 / 2.03
- Defence rating (Coastal Union / Singida Black Stars)
- 1.17 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Coastal Union vs Singida Black Stars score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Coastal Union goals. Columns: Singida Black Stars goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Coastal Union vs Singida Black Stars goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Coastal Union vs Singida Black Stars
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coastal Union | 32% | 3.11 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Singida Black Stars | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Coastal Union or draw) | 57% | 1.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Singida Black Stars) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Singida Black Stars win by 2+ | 32% | 3.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Coastal Union and Singida Black Stars recent form
Coastal Union
2W 1D 3L
Singida Black Stars
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Coastal Union at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Singida Black Stars away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Coastal Union at home only, Singida Black Stars away only.
Coastal Union vs Singida Black Stars head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Coastal Union 2 · draws 1 · Singida Black Stars 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Coastal Union | 2-1 | Singida Black Stars | Tanzania Premier League |
| 2026-03-02 | Singida Black Stars | 1-0 | Coastal Union | Tanzania Premier League |
| 2025-04-10 | Coastal Union | 2-1 | Singida Black Stars | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2024-11-02 | Singida Black Stars | 0-0 | Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
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Before and after this match
- Coastal Union, next: Namungo vs Coastal Union prediction
- Singida Black Stars, next: Tusker vs Singida Black Stars prediction