Updated

Tanzania Premier League · Matchday 9

Namungo vs Coastal Union

· Majaliwa Stadium

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Namungo to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NamungoDrawCoastal Union

Namungo vs Coastal Union: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNamungoDrawCoastal Union
Model43%31%26%
Market———
Published43%31%26%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.91.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Namungo and Coastal Union expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.26Namungo
0.91Coastal Union
Total expected goals
2.17
Attack rating (Namungo / Coastal Union)
0.87 / 0.93
Defence rating (Namungo / Coastal Union)
1.08 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Namungo vs Coastal Union score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.8% 9.1% 4.7% 1.4% 0.4% 1 13.1% 14.4% 6.0% 1.8% 0.5% 2 9.0% 8.2% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3% 3 3.8% 3.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 1.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Namungo goals. Columns: Coastal Union goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Namungo vs Coastal Union goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 65%
Over 2.5 37%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Namungo vs Coastal Union

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Namungo43%2.33
Draw31%3.18
Coastal Union26%3.90
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.537%2.72
Under 2.563%1.58
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.27
No56%1.79
Double chance1X (Namungo or draw)74%1.34
12 (either side)69%1.46
X2 (draw or Coastal Union)57%1.75
Handicap -1Namungo win by 2+20%5.01
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Namungo and Coastal Union recent form

Namungo 2W 0D 4L
Coastal Union 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Namungo at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.

Coastal Union away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Namungo at home only, Coastal Union away only.

Namungo vs Coastal Union head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Namungo 5 · draws 4 · Coastal Union 1.

NamungoDrawsCoastal Union
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-12Coastal Union1-1NamungoTanzania Premier League
2026-01-23Namungo1-0Coastal UnionTanzania Premier League
2025-02-23Namungo0-0Coastal UnionLigi kuu Bara
2024-09-17Coastal Union0-2NamungoLigi kuu Bara
2024-04-17Namungo1-0Coastal UnionLigi kuu Bara
2023-11-01Coastal Union0-0NamungoLigi kuu Bara
2023-01-01Coastal Union1-1NamungoLigi kuu Bara
2022-09-17Namungo1-0Coastal UnionLigi kuu Bara
2022-06-20Namungo0-1Coastal UnionLigi kuu Bara
2022-01-23Coastal Union1-3NamungoLigi kuu Bara

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match