JKT Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar preview
In the Tanzania Premier League fixture, JKT Tanzania has a 57% chance to win against Kagera Sugar, who have a 20% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with JKT Tanzania expected to score 2.11 goals and Kagera Sugar 1.21 goals.
Both teams to score stands at 63%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 65%. However, JKT Tanzania's recent form shows some inconsistency with two losses in their last six matches. Kagera Sugar has struggled as well, with only one win in their last six games. This could affect the accuracy of the predictions.
JKT Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar: model vs market
| Source | JKT Tanzania | Draw | Kagera Sugar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
JKT Tanzania and Kagera Sugar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.33
- Attack rating (JKT Tanzania / Kagera Sugar)
- 1.07 / 1.06
- Defence rating (JKT Tanzania / Kagera Sugar)
- 1.26 / 1.46
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
JKT Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: JKT Tanzania goals. Columns: Kagera Sugar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
JKT Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for JKT Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | JKT Tanzania | 57% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Kagera Sugar | 20% | 4.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (JKT Tanzania or draw) | 80% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Kagera Sugar) | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | JKT Tanzania win by 2+ | 35% | 2.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
JKT Tanzania and Kagera Sugar recent form
JKT Tanzania
3W 0D 3L
Kagera Sugar
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
JKT Tanzania at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
Kagera Sugar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: JKT Tanzania at home only, Kagera Sugar away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Polisi Tanzania vs Pamba Jiji — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Simba vs Mbeya City 2026-10-24
- Azam v Mashujaa — match page 2026-10-24
- Dodoma Jiji vs Young Africans — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Singida Black Stars vs Tabora United 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- JKT Tanzania, previous: JKT Tanzania – Mbeya City, 2026-10-18
- Kagera Sugar, previous: Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania prediction