JKT Tanzania vs Mbeya City preview
In the upcoming match between JKT Tanzania and Mbeya City, the 1X2 probabilities show JKT Tanzania at 42%, while Mbeya City sits at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 12% chance. JKT Tanzania has an expected goals figure of 1.27 compared to Mbeya City's 0.98, suggesting a tighter contest.
However, the match could deviate from this forecast. The probability for Over 2.5 goals is at 39%, and both teams to score stands at 46%. Recent form also indicates variability, with JKT Tanzania winning 2 of their last 6 matches and Mbeya City winning 4 of their last 6. This could influence the outcome in unexpected ways.
JKT Tanzania vs Mbeya City: model vs market
| Source | JKT Tanzania | Draw | Mbeya City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
JKT Tanzania and Mbeya City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.25
- Attack rating (JKT Tanzania / Mbeya City)
- 1.07 / 0.86
- Defence rating (JKT Tanzania / Mbeya City)
- 1.26 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
JKT Tanzania vs Mbeya City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: JKT Tanzania goals. Columns: Mbeya City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
JKT Tanzania vs Mbeya City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for JKT Tanzania vs Mbeya City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | JKT Tanzania | 42% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Mbeya City | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (JKT Tanzania or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Mbeya City) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | JKT Tanzania win by 2+ | 19% | 5.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
JKT Tanzania and Mbeya City recent form
JKT Tanzania
3W 0D 3L
Mbeya City
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
JKT Tanzania at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
Mbeya City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: JKT Tanzania at home only, Mbeya City away only.
JKT Tanzania vs Mbeya City head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: JKT Tanzania 1 · draws 1 · Mbeya City 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | JKT Tanzania | 1-0 | Mbeya City | Tanzania Premier League |
| 2025-10-24 | Mbeya City | 2-2 | JKT Tanzania | Tanzania Premier League |
| 2021-04-28 | Mbeya City | 6-1 | JKT Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2020-11-24 | JKT Tanzania | 0-1 | Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2020-06-27 | Mbeya City | 2-0 | JKT Tanzania | Ligi kuu Bara |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
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- Simba vs Mashujaa 2026-10-13
- Fountain Gate v Pamba Jiji — match page 2026-10-16
- Geita Gold vs Dodoma Jiji — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania 2026-10-17
- Tabora United vs Young Africans — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- JKT Tanzania, previous: Fountain Gate vs JKT Tanzania: odds and pick
- JKT Tanzania, next: JKT Tanzania vs Kagera Sugar: odds and pick
- Mbeya City, previous: Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar prediction
- Mbeya City, next: Simba vs Mbeya City: odds and pick