Simba vs Mbeya City preview
In the Tanzania Premier League fixture between Simba and Mbeya City, the 1X2 probabilities show Simba at 81% to win, while Mbeya City sits at just 4%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, with a 17% chance. Simba's expected goals are 2.41 compared to Mbeya City's 0.44, indicating a strong offensive performance from Simba.
However, the recent form shows Mbeya City has won 3 of their last 6 matches, which could disrupt expectations. Additionally, while there is a 54% chance for Over 2.5 goals, the likelihood of both teams scoring is only 33%. This suggests that while Simba is favored, unexpected outcomes could still arise.
Simba vs Mbeya City: model vs market
| Source | Simba | Draw | Mbeya City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 81% | 15% | 4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 81% | 15% | 4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 0.44.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Simba and Mbeya City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.85
- Attack rating (Simba / Mbeya City)
- 2.03 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Simba / Mbeya City)
- 0.57 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Simba vs Mbeya City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Simba goals. Columns: Mbeya City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Simba vs Mbeya City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Simba vs Mbeya City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Simba | 81% | 1.24 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.68 | |
| Mbeya City | 4% | 22.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 3.02 |
| No | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Simba or draw) | 96% | 1.05 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Mbeya City) | 19% | 5.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Simba win by 2+ | 58% | 1.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Simba and Mbeya City recent form
Simba
6W 0D 0L
Mbeya City
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Simba at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
Mbeya City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Simba at home only, Mbeya City away only.
Simba vs Mbeya City head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Simba 2 · draws 0 · Mbeya City 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Mbeya City | 0-1 | Simba | Tanzania Premier League |
| 2025-12-04 | Simba | 3-0 | Mbeya City | Tanzania Premier League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Polisi Tanzania vs Pamba Jiji — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Azam v Mashujaa — match page 2026-10-24
- Dodoma Jiji vs Young Africans — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Singida Black Stars vs Tabora United 2026-10-24
- JKT Tanzania v Kagera Sugar — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Simba, previous: 15 de Agosto vs Simba: odds and pick
- Simba, next: Simba vs 15 de Agosto: odds and pick
- Mbeya City, previous: JKT Tanzania – Mbeya City, 2026-10-18