15 de Agosto vs Simba Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

15 de Agosto vs Simba preview

In the CAF Champions League fixture, 15 de Agosto faces Simba with 43% 1X2 probability for Simba to win compared to 25% for 15 de Agosto. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 14% chance. Simba's expected goals stand at 1.23, while 15 de Agosto has 0.87, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors.

However, the match could deviate from this prediction if 15 de Agosto improves their recent form, which includes a mixed record of W-W-L-D-W-L. Additionally, the probabilities for Over 2.5 goals sit at 35% and both teams to score at 42%, suggesting a lower likelihood of high-scoring action.

15 de Agosto vs Simba: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	15 de Agosto	Draw	Simba
Model	25%	32%	43%
Market	—	—	—
Published	25%	32%	43%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.87.
Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

15 de Agosto and Simba expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.8715 de Agosto

1.23Simba

Total expected goals: 2.10
Attack rating (15 de Agosto / Simba): 1.38 / 1.88
Defence rating (15 de Agosto / Simba): 0.90 / 0.49

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

15 de Agosto vs Simba score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.6% 13.8% 9.3% 3.8% 1.5% 1 9.3% 14.4% 8.1% 3.3% 1.3% 2 4.6% 5.7% 3.5% 1.4% 0.6% 3 1.3% 1.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 4+ 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: 15 de Agosto goals. Columns: Simba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

15 de Agosto vs Simba goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%

Over 1.5 63%

Over 2.5 35%

Over 3.5 16%

Both teams to score: 42%
No goals (0–0): 14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for 15 de Agosto vs Simba

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	15 de Agosto	25%	4.05
	Draw	32%	3.13
	Simba	43%	2.30
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	35%	2.86
	Under 2.5	65%	1.54
Both teams to score	Yes	42%	2.36
	No	58%	1.73
Double chance	1X (15 de Agosto or draw)	57%	1.77
	12 (either side)	68%	1.47
	X2 (draw or Simba)	75%	1.33
Handicap -1	Simba win by 2+	20%	5.01
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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