San-Pédro vs Nouadhibou Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

San-Pédro vs Nouadhibou preview

In the CAF Champions League fixture between San-Pédro and Nouadhibou, the 1X2 probabilities show San-Pédro at 46%, while Nouadhibou sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, with a 12% chance. San-Pédro has an expected goals figure of 1.39 compared to Nouadhibou's 0.93, indicating a potential edge in attacking threat.

However, both teams to score stands at 47%, suggesting that a goal from Nouadhibou is possible. San-Pédro's recent form includes 6 games without a win, while Nouadhibou has drawn in 5 of their last 6 matches. This context could lead to a different outcome than anticipated.

San-Pédro vs Nouadhibou: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	San-Pédro	Draw	Nouadhibou
Model	46%	30%	24%
Market	—	—	—
Published	46%	30%	24%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.93.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

San-Pédro and Nouadhibou expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.39San-Pédro

0.93Nouadhibou

Total expected goals: 2.31
Attack rating (San-Pédro / Nouadhibou): 1.30 / 0.79
Defence rating (San-Pédro / Nouadhibou): 1.60 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

San-Pédro vs Nouadhibou score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.2% 7.9% 4.3% 1.3% 0.4% 1 12.4% 14.0% 5.9% 1.8% 0.5% 2 9.5% 8.8% 4.1% 1.3% 0.4% 3 4.4% 4.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 2.1% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: San-Pédro goals. Columns: Nouadhibou goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

San-Pédro vs Nouadhibou goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 69%

Over 2.5 41%

Over 3.5 20%

Both teams to score: 47%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for San-Pédro vs Nouadhibou

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	San-Pédro	46%	2.16
	Draw	30%	3.35
	Nouadhibou	24%	4.19
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	41%	2.45
	Under 2.5	59%	1.69
Both teams to score	Yes	47%	2.15
	No	53%	1.87
Double chance	1X (San-Pédro or draw)	76%	1.31
	12 (either side)	70%	1.43
	X2 (draw or Nouadhibou)	54%	1.86
Handicap -1	San-Pédro win by 2+	23%	4.37
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer