EL Merriekh Bentiu vs Pyramids FC Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

EL Merriekh Bentiu vs Pyramids FC preview

In the CAF Champions League match between EL Merriekh Bentiu and Pyramids FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Pyramids FC at 42%, compared to EL Merriekh Bentiu's 27%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% chance. Pyramids FC comes into this match with strong recent form, winning their last 6 matches, while EL Merriekh Bentiu has won 2 of their last 4.

The model indicates a 38% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance for both teams to score. EL Merriekh Bentiu has expected goals of 0.96, while Pyramids FC has 1.25. If EL Merriekh Bentiu can improve their attacking output, they may challenge the expected scoreline.

EL Merriekh Bentiu vs Pyramids FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	EL Merriekh Bentiu	Draw	Pyramids FC
Model	27%	31%	42%
Market	—	—	—
Published	27%	31%	42%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

EL Merriekh Bentiu and Pyramids FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.96EL Merriekh Bentiu

1.25Pyramids FC

Total expected goals: 2.22
Attack rating (EL Merriekh Bentiu / Pyramids FC): 1.06 / 1.80
Defence rating (EL Merriekh Bentiu / Pyramids FC): 0.95 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

EL Merriekh Bentiu vs Pyramids FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.2% 12.3% 8.6% 3.6% 1.5% 1 9.2% 14.5% 8.2% 3.4% 1.4% 2 5.1% 6.3% 4.0% 1.7% 0.7% 3 1.6% 2.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: EL Merriekh Bentiu goals. Columns: Pyramids FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

EL Merriekh Bentiu vs Pyramids FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 66%

Over 2.5 38%

Over 3.5 18%

Both teams to score: 45%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for EL Merriekh Bentiu vs Pyramids FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	EL Merriekh Bentiu	27%	3.68
	Draw	31%	3.20
	Pyramids FC	42%	2.40
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	38%	2.62
	Under 2.5	62%	1.62
Both teams to score	Yes	45%	2.20
	No	55%	1.83
Double chance	1X (EL Merriekh Bentiu or draw)	58%	1.71
	12 (either side)	69%	1.45
	X2 (draw or Pyramids FC)	73%	1.37
Handicap -1	Pyramids FC win by 2+	19%	5.21
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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