APR vs Zamalek SC Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

APR vs Zamalek SC preview

In the CAF Champions League match between APR and Zamalek SC, the 1X2 probabilities show Zamalek SC at 49% to win, compared to APR's 18%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with the expected goals of APR at 0.61 and Zamalek SC at 1.20.

Zamalek SC's recent form is strong with 6 consecutive wins, while APR has struggled, recording 3 losses in their last 4 matches. This could affect the outcome, particularly if APR manages to improve their performance. The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 27%, and both teams to score is at 33%, indicating a low-scoring match is more probable.

APR vs Zamalek SC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	APR	Draw	Zamalek SC
Model	18%	33%	49%
Market	15%	25%	61%
Published	15%	27%	58%
Edge	+3%	+9%	-12%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.61.
Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.48, recorded 2026-10-10 — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update.

APR and Zamalek SC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.61APR

1.20Zamalek SC

Total expected goals: 1.81
Attack rating (APR / Zamalek SC): 0.94 / 1.40
Defence rating (APR / Zamalek SC): 1.17 / 0.50

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

APR vs Zamalek SC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.6% 18.5% 11.8% 4.7% 1.8% 1 8.8% 13.2% 7.2% 2.9% 1.1% 2 3.0% 3.6% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 3 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 4+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: APR goals. Columns: Zamalek SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

APR vs Zamalek SC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 82%

Over 1.5 55%

Over 2.5 27%

Over 3.5 11%

Both teams to score: 33%
No goals (0–0): 18%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for APR vs Zamalek SC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	APR	15%	6.51
	Draw	27%	3.74
	Zamalek SC	58%	1.73
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	27%	3.69
	Under 2.5	73%	1.37
Both teams to score	Yes	33%	3.03
	No	67%	1.49
Double chance	1X (APR or draw)	42%	2.38
	12 (either side)	73%	1.36
	X2 (draw or Zamalek SC)	85%	1.18
Handicap -1	Zamalek SC win by 2+	23%	4.41
	Push (exactly one goal)	27%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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