TP Mazembe vs Club Africain Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

TP Mazembe vs Club Africain preview

In the CAF Champions League fixture between TP Mazembe and Club Africain, the 1X2 probabilities show TP Mazembe at 33%, a draw at 37%, and Club Africain at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, which occurs 20% of the time according to our model.

Both teams to score stands at 33%, while Over 2.5 goals is only 24%. TP Mazembe has an expected goals figure of 0.86, while Club Africain has 0.82. This suggests a low-scoring match could be likely, but any unexpected offensive performance could change the outcome. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions.

TP Mazembe vs Club Africain: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	TP Mazembe	Draw	Club Africain
Model	33%	37%	30%
Market	—	—	—
Published	33%	37%	30%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

TP Mazembe and Club Africain expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.86TP Mazembe

0.82Club Africain

Total expected goals: 1.67
Attack rating (TP Mazembe / Club Africain): 1.30 / 1.30
Defence rating (TP Mazembe / Club Africain): 0.86 / 0.51

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

TP Mazembe vs Club Africain score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 20.1% 14.0% 6.3% 1.7% 0.4% 1 14.7% 14.4% 5.4% 1.5% 0.4% 2 6.9% 5.6% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 3 2.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: TP Mazembe goals. Columns: Club Africain goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

TP Mazembe vs Club Africain goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 80%

Over 1.5 51%

Over 2.5 24%

Over 3.5 9%

Both teams to score: 33%
No goals (0–0): 20%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for TP Mazembe vs Club Africain

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	TP Mazembe	33%	3.07
	Draw	37%	2.70
	Club Africain	30%	3.29
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	24%	4.24
	Under 2.5	76%	1.31
Both teams to score	Yes	33%	2.99
	No	67%	1.50
Double chance	1X (TP Mazembe or draw)	70%	1.44
	12 (either side)	63%	1.59
	X2 (draw or Club Africain)	67%	1.48
Handicap -1	TP Mazembe win by 2+	12%	8.68
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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