Simba vs Mashujaa: model vs market
| Source | Simba | Draw | Mashujaa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77% | 17% | 5% |
| Market | 78% | 16% | 6% |
| Published | 78% | 16% | 6% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 0.42.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Simba and Mashujaa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.60
- Attack rating (Simba / Mashujaa)
- 1.70 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Simba / Mashujaa)
- 0.51 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Simba vs Mashujaa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Simba goals. Columns: Mashujaa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Simba vs Mashujaa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 31%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Simba vs Mashujaa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Simba | 78% | 1.28 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.11 | |
| Mashujaa | 6% | 17.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31% | 3.20 |
| No | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Simba or draw) | 94% | 1.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Mashujaa) | 22% | 4.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Simba win by 2+ | 53% | 1.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Simba and Mashujaa recent form
Simba
6W 0D 0L
Mashujaa
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Simba at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 7 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
Mashujaa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Simba at home only, Mashujaa away only.
Simba vs Mashujaa head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Simba 6 · draws 0 · Mashujaa 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Mashujaa | 0-3 | Simba | Tanzania Premier League |
| 2026-01-29 | Simba | 2-0 | Mashujaa | Tanzania Premier League |
| 2025-05-02 | Simba | 2-1 | Mashujaa | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2024-11-01 | Mashujaa | 0-1 | Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2024-03-15 | Simba | 2-0 | Mashujaa | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2024-02-03 | Mashujaa | 0-1 | Simba | Ligi kuu Bara |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Coastal Union v Singida Black Stars — match page 2026-10-12
- Fountain Gate v Pamba Jiji — match page 2026-10-16
- Geita Gold vs Dodoma Jiji — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania 2026-10-17
- JKT Tanzania v Mbeya City — match page 2026-10-18
- Tabora United vs Young Africans — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Simba, next: 15 de Agosto vs Simba: odds and pick
- Mashujaa, next: Azam vs Mashujaa prediction