Simba vs Mashujaa Prediction & Betting Tips 13/10/2026

Simba vs Mashujaa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Simba	Draw	Mashujaa
Model	80%	17%	4%
Market	—	—	—
Published	80%	17%	4%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 0.34.
Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Simba and Mashujaa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.17Simba

0.34Mashujaa

Total expected goals: 2.51
Attack rating (Simba / Mashujaa): 1.72 / 0.81
Defence rating (Simba / Mashujaa): 0.46 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Simba vs Mashujaa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.8% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1 17.1% 6.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 2 19.2% 6.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 3 13.9% 4.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 12.5% 4.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Simba goals. Columns: Mashujaa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Simba vs Mashujaa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 72%

Over 2.5 46%

Over 3.5 24%

Both teams to score: 26%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Simba vs Mashujaa

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Simba	80%	1.26
	Draw	17%	6.06
	Mashujaa	4%	25.35
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	46%	2.19
	Under 2.5	54%	1.84
Both teams to score	Yes	26%	3.86
	No	74%	1.35
Double chance	1X (Simba or draw)	96%	1.04
	12 (either side)	83%	1.20
	X2 (draw or Mashujaa)	20%	4.89
Handicap -1	Simba win by 2+	55%	1.81
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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