Updated

Tanzania Premier League · Matchday 8

Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania

· Kaitaba Stadium, Bukoba

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Polisi Tanzania to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Kagera SugarDrawPolisi Tanzania

Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKagera SugarDrawPolisi Tanzania
Model30%25%45%
Market37%31%32%
Published35%29%36%
Edge-6%-6%+12%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.46.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Polisi Tanzania below the model: +12.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Kagera Sugar and Polisi Tanzania expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.46Kagera Sugar
1.80Polisi Tanzania
Total expected goals
3.26
Attack rating (Kagera Sugar / Polisi Tanzania)
1.06 / 1.35
Defence rating (Kagera Sugar / Polisi Tanzania)
1.46 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 5.9% 6.2% 3.7% 2.5% 1 4.6% 11.1% 9.1% 5.5% 3.7% 2 4.1% 7.4% 6.6% 4.0% 2.7% 3 2.0% 3.6% 3.2% 1.9% 1.3% 4+ 1.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.0% 0.7%

Rows: Kagera Sugar goals. Columns: Polisi Tanzania goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kagera Sugar35%2.86
Draw29%3.40
Polisi Tanzania36%2.81
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.58
Under 2.537%2.72
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.54
No35%2.86
Double chance1X (Kagera Sugar or draw)64%1.55
12 (either side)71%1.42
X2 (draw or Polisi Tanzania)65%1.54
Handicap -1Polisi Tanzania win by 2+25%4.03
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Kagera Sugar and Polisi Tanzania recent form

Kagera Sugar 1W 2D 3L
Polisi Tanzania 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Kagera Sugar at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.

Polisi Tanzania away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Kagera Sugar at home only, Polisi Tanzania away only.

Kagera Sugar vs Polisi Tanzania head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Kagera Sugar 2 · draws 4 · Polisi Tanzania 2.

Kagera SugarDrawsPolisi Tanzania
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-02-06Polisi Tanzania0-0Kagera SugarLigi kuu Bara
2022-10-08Kagera Sugar2-0Polisi TanzaniaLigi kuu Bara
2022-06-29Kagera Sugar0-0Polisi TanzaniaLigi kuu Bara
2022-02-19Polisi Tanzania0-0Kagera SugarLigi kuu Bara
2021-07-15Polisi Tanzania0-1Kagera SugarLigi kuu Bara
2020-12-22Kagera Sugar2-2Polisi TanzaniaLigi kuu Bara
2020-07-18Kagera Sugar1-2Polisi TanzaniaLigi kuu Bara
2020-01-11Polisi Tanzania2-1Kagera SugarLigi kuu Bara

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match