Geita Gold vs Dodoma Jiji preview
In the Tanzania Premier League fixture between Geita Gold and Dodoma Jiji, the 1X2 probabilities show Geita Gold at 45%, a draw at 31%, and Dodoma Jiji at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance according to our model. Geita Gold has expected goals of 1.28, while Dodoma Jiji sits at 0.87.
While Geita Gold has struggled recently with a form of L-L-L-D-W-L, Dodoma Jiji has performed better, recording W-W-W-L-L-D. This difference in recent form could influence the match outcome, potentially challenging the predicted scoreline and the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals, which stands at 36%. The probability for both teams to score is 43%, indicating a competitive match.
Geita Gold vs Dodoma Jiji: model vs market
| Source | Geita Gold | Draw | Dodoma Jiji |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 31% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 44% | 31% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.92.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Geita Gold and Dodoma Jiji expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.22
- Attack rating (Geita Gold / Dodoma Jiji)
- 1.01 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Geita Gold / Dodoma Jiji)
- 1.40 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Geita Gold vs Dodoma Jiji score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Geita Gold goals. Columns: Dodoma Jiji goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Geita Gold vs Dodoma Jiji goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Geita Gold vs Dodoma Jiji
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Geita Gold | 44% | 2.28 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Dodoma Jiji | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.22 |
| No | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Geita Gold or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Dodoma Jiji) | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | Geita Gold win by 2+ | 21% | 4.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Geita Gold and Dodoma Jiji recent form
Geita Gold
1W 1D 4L
Dodoma Jiji
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Geita Gold at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Dodoma Jiji away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Geita Gold at home only, Dodoma Jiji away only.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Coastal Union v Singida Black Stars — match page 2026-10-12
- Tabora United vs Young Africans — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Simba vs Mashujaa 2026-10-13
- Fountain Gate v Pamba Jiji — match page 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Geita Gold, previous: Pamba Jiji vs Geita Gold prediction
- Dodoma Jiji, previous: Dodoma Jiji – Singida Black Stars, 2026-10-09