Scotland Mabvuku vs Petro de Luanda Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Scotland Mabvuku vs Petro de Luanda preview

In the CAF Champions League match on 2026-10-18, Scotland Mabvuku has a 42% probability to win against Petro de Luanda, who has a 20% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 19% likelihood. Scotland Mabvuku's expected goals stand at 0.96, while Petro de Luanda's is lower at 0.58, indicating a potential struggle for the visitors to score.

However, the prediction could be challenged if both teams find a way to capitalize on their chances. With only a 20% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 28% likelihood for both teams to score, it suggests a low-scoring affair is more probable. Scotland Mabvuku's recent form shows a draw and a win, while Petro de Luanda has drawn twice and lost once in their last five matches.

Scotland Mabvuku vs Petro de Luanda: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Scotland Mabvuku	Draw	Petro de Luanda
Model	42%	37%	20%
Market	—	—	—
Published	42%	37%	20%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.96 vs 0.58.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Scotland Mabvuku and Petro de Luanda expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.96Scotland Mabvuku

0.58Petro de Luanda

Total expected goals: 1.54
Attack rating (Scotland Mabvuku / Petro de Luanda): 0.85 / 1.10
Defence rating (Scotland Mabvuku / Petro de Luanda): 0.71 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Scotland Mabvuku vs Petro de Luanda score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 22.6% 11.1% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% 1 19.5% 13.1% 3.4% 0.7% 0.1% 2 10.0% 5.7% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 3 3.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Scotland Mabvuku goals. Columns: Petro de Luanda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Scotland Mabvuku vs Petro de Luanda goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 77%

Over 1.5 47%

Over 2.5 20%

Over 3.5 7%

Both teams to score: 28%
No goals (0–0): 23%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Scotland Mabvuku vs Petro de Luanda

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Scotland Mabvuku	42%	2.35
	Draw	37%	2.67
	Petro de Luanda	20%	4.99
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	20%	4.97
	Under 2.5	80%	1.25
Both teams to score	Yes	28%	3.54
	No	72%	1.39
Double chance	1X (Scotland Mabvuku or draw)	80%	1.25
	12 (either side)	63%	1.60
	X2 (draw or Petro de Luanda)	58%	1.74
Handicap -1	Scotland Mabvuku win by 2+	17%	5.99
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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