Asswehly vs ES Tunis Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Asswehly vs ES Tunis preview

In the CAF Champions League fixture between Asswehly and ES Tunis, the 1X2 probabilities show Asswehly at 62%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 17%. Asswehly's expected goals stand at 1.63, while ES Tunis has a lower figure of 0.58.

However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. The chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 38%, and both teams to score is at 36%. This suggests that while Asswehly is favored, ES Tunis could still pose a challenge, especially if they improve their recent form, which includes two wins and three losses in their last six matches.

Asswehly vs ES Tunis: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Asswehly	Draw	ES Tunis
Model	62%	26%	12%
Market	—	—	—
Published	62%	26%	12%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.58.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Asswehly and ES Tunis expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.63Asswehly

0.58ES Tunis

Total expected goals: 2.21
Attack rating (Asswehly / ES Tunis): 1.30 / 1.11
Defence rating (Asswehly / ES Tunis): 0.71 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Asswehly vs ES Tunis score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.1% 5.4% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 1 16.9% 11.4% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 2 14.6% 8.4% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 3 7.9% 4.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 4+ 4.6% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Asswehly goals. Columns: ES Tunis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Asswehly vs ES Tunis goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 66%

Over 2.5 38%

Over 3.5 18%

Both teams to score: 36%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Asswehly vs ES Tunis

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Asswehly	62%	1.62
	Draw	26%	3.82
	ES Tunis	12%	8.40
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	38%	2.64
	Under 2.5	62%	1.61
Both teams to score	Yes	36%	2.75
	No	64%	1.57
Double chance	1X (Asswehly or draw)	88%	1.14
	12 (either side)	74%	1.36
	X2 (draw or ES Tunis)	38%	2.62
Handicap -1	Asswehly win by 2+	35%	2.85
	Push (exactly one goal)	27%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer