Horoya vs Al Merreikh Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Horoya vs Al Merreikh preview

In the CAF Champions League fixture between Horoya and Al Merreikh, the 1X2 probabilities show Horoya at 37%, a draw at 39%, and Al Merreikh at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 23% chance according to our model.

Both teams have struggled to find the net, with expected goals of 0.86 for Horoya and 0.65 for Al Merreikh. This could lead to fewer scoring opportunities, making the chances for Over 2.5 goals at just 19% and both teams to score at 29% appear low. A draw remains a strong possibility given the recent form of both teams.

Horoya vs Al Merreikh: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Horoya	Draw	Al Merreikh
Model	37%	39%	24%
Market	—	—	—
Published	37%	39%	24%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Horoya and Al Merreikh expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.86Horoya

0.65Al Merreikh

Total expected goals: 1.51
Attack rating (Horoya / Al Merreikh): 1.04 / 0.80
Defence rating (Horoya / Al Merreikh): 1.11 / 0.65

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Horoya vs Al Merreikh score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 23.3% 13.0% 4.6% 1.0% 0.2% 1 17.8% 13.6% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2% 2 8.2% 5.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 3 2.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Horoya goals. Columns: Al Merreikh goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Horoya vs Al Merreikh goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 77%

Over 1.5 46%

Over 2.5 19%

Over 3.5 7%

Both teams to score: 29%
No goals (0–0): 23%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Horoya vs Al Merreikh

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Horoya	37%	2.71
	Draw	39%	2.58
	Al Merreikh	24%	4.11
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	19%	5.16
	Under 2.5	81%	1.24
Both teams to score	Yes	29%	3.47
	No	71%	1.40
Double chance	1X (Horoya or draw)	76%	1.32
	12 (either side)	61%	1.63
	X2 (draw or Al Merreikh)	63%	1.59
Handicap -1	Horoya win by 2+	13%	7.53
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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