Wiliete vs Mamelodi Sundowns Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Wiliete vs Mamelodi Sundowns preview

In the CAF Champions League fixture between Wiliete and Mamelodi Sundowns, the 1X2 probabilities show Mamelodi Sundowns at 38% to win, while Wiliete stands at 35%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score has a 60% likelihood, and there is a 56% chance of Over 2.5 goals.

Wiliete's recent form includes two wins followed by two losses, while Mamelodi Sundowns has an impressive run with six consecutive wins and one draw. The expected goals are close, with Wiliete at 1.42 and Mamelodi Sundowns at 1.49. This close match could shift if Wiliete's form improves or if Mamelodi Sundowns underperforms.

Wiliete vs Mamelodi Sundowns: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Wiliete	Draw	Mamelodi Sundowns
Model	35%	27%	38%
Market	—	—	—
Published	35%	27%	38%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Wiliete and Mamelodi Sundowns expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.42Wiliete

1.49Mamelodi Sundowns

Total expected goals: 2.91
Attack rating (Wiliete / Mamelodi Sundowns): 1.15 / 1.96
Defence rating (Wiliete / Mamelodi Sundowns): 1.04 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Wiliete vs Mamelodi Sundowns score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.6% 7.0% 6.1% 3.0% 1.6% 1 6.6% 12.7% 8.6% 4.3% 2.2% 2 5.5% 8.2% 6.1% 3.0% 1.6% 3 2.6% 3.9% 2.9% 1.4% 0.7% 4+ 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: Wiliete goals. Columns: Mamelodi Sundowns goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Wiliete vs Mamelodi Sundowns goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 56%

Over 3.5 33%

Both teams to score: 60%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Wiliete vs Mamelodi Sundowns

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Wiliete	35%	2.87
	Draw	27%	3.70
	Mamelodi Sundowns	38%	2.62
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	56%	1.80
	Under 2.5	44%	2.26
Both teams to score	Yes	60%	1.67
	No	40%	2.50
Double chance	1X (Wiliete or draw)	62%	1.62
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Mamelodi Sundowns)	65%	1.53
Handicap -1	Mamelodi Sundowns win by 2+	19%	5.27
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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