Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas preview

In the CAF Champions League fixture between Maghreb Fès and ASEC Mimosas, the 1X2 probabilities show Maghreb Fès at 57%, while ASEC Mimosas sits at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 20% chance according to our model. Maghreb Fès has an expected goals figure of 1.36, compared to ASEC Mimosas' 0.52.

While the numbers favor Maghreb Fès, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Both teams to score has a probability of 31%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 29%. If ASEC Mimosas can improve their attacking output, they might challenge the expected outcome.

Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Maghreb Fès	Draw	ASEC Mimosas
Model	57%	30%	13%
Market	—	—	—
Published	57%	30%	13%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.52.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Maghreb Fès and ASEC Mimosas expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.36Maghreb Fès

0.52ASEC Mimosas

Total expected goals: 1.88
Attack rating (Maghreb Fès / ASEC Mimosas): 1.19 / 1.03
Defence rating (Maghreb Fès / ASEC Mimosas): 0.69 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.3% 6.8% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1 19.6% 11.9% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 2 14.1% 7.4% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 3 6.4% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 2.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Maghreb Fès goals. Columns: ASEC Mimosas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%

Over 1.5 57%

Over 2.5 29%

Over 3.5 12%

Both teams to score: 31%
No goals (0–0): 16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Maghreb Fès	57%	1.76
	Draw	30%	3.31
	ASEC Mimosas	13%	7.64
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	29%	3.43
	Under 2.5	71%	1.41
Both teams to score	Yes	31%	3.20
	No	69%	1.46
Double chance	1X (Maghreb Fès or draw)	87%	1.15
	12 (either side)	70%	1.43
	X2 (draw or ASEC Mimosas)	43%	2.31
Handicap -1	Maghreb Fès win by 2+	29%	3.47
	Push (exactly one goal)	28%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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