ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja preview

In the Tunisia Ligue 1 fixture, ES Tunis faces Olympique Béja, with a 57% probability for ES Tunis to win according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects ES Tunis's expected goals of 1.61 compared to Olympique Béja's 0.73. However, a draw is also a possibility, given the 27% chance and recent form of both teams.

Olympique Béja has shown some resilience with two draws in their last five matches, while ES Tunis has fluctuated with three wins and two losses. The market indicates a 41% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance for both teams to score, suggesting that while ES Tunis is favored, unexpected outcomes could arise.

ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	ES Tunis	Draw	Olympique Béja
Model	57%	27%	16%
Market	—	—	—
Published	57%	27%	16%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.73.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

ES Tunis and Olympique Béja expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.61ES Tunis

0.73Olympique Béja

Total expected goals: 2.33
Attack rating (ES Tunis / Olympique Béja): 1.24 / 0.94
Defence rating (ES Tunis / Olympique Béja): 1.08 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.8% 5.9% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 1 14.4% 12.5% 4.1% 1.0% 0.2% 2 12.5% 9.1% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 3 6.7% 4.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 3.8% 2.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: ES Tunis goals. Columns: Olympique Béja goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 69%

Over 2.5 41%

Over 3.5 21%

Both teams to score: 42%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	ES Tunis	57%	1.75
	Draw	27%	3.69
	Olympique Béja	16%	6.39
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	41%	2.42
	Under 2.5	59%	1.70
Both teams to score	Yes	42%	2.36
	No	58%	1.74
Double chance	1X (ES Tunis or draw)	84%	1.19
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Olympique Béja)	43%	2.34
Handicap -1	ES Tunis win by 2+	32%	3.15
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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