CA Bizertin vs US Monastirienne Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

CA Bizertin vs US Monastirienne preview

In the Tunisia Ligue 1 fixture, CA Bizertin faces US Monastirienne, with model 1X2 probabilities showing CA Bizertin at 28%, a draw at 35%, and US Monastirienne at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 15% chance. Both teams to score stands at 37%, while Over 2.5 goals has a lower probability of 28%.

CA Bizertin's expected goals are 0.83, while US Monastirienne's are 1.00. Recent form shows CA Bizertin with two losses and one win in their last six matches, while US Monastirienne has three wins in their last six. This context suggests that CA Bizertin may struggle to secure a win, which could affect the outcome of predictions.

CA Bizertin vs US Monastirienne: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	CA Bizertin	Draw	US Monastirienne
Model	28%	35%	37%
Market	—	—	—
Published	28%	35%	37%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

CA Bizertin and US Monastirienne expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.83CA Bizertin

1.00US Monastirienne

Total expected goals: 1.82
Attack rating (CA Bizertin / US Monastirienne): 0.79 / 1.33
Defence rating (CA Bizertin / US Monastirienne): 1.05 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

CA Bizertin vs US Monastirienne score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.5% 14.8% 8.0% 2.7% 0.8% 1 12.0% 14.6% 6.6% 2.2% 0.7% 2 5.5% 5.5% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 3 1.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: CA Bizertin goals. Columns: US Monastirienne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

CA Bizertin vs US Monastirienne goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%

Over 1.5 56%

Over 2.5 28%

Over 3.5 11%

Both teams to score: 37%
No goals (0–0): 17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for CA Bizertin vs US Monastirienne

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	CA Bizertin	28%	3.59
	Draw	35%	2.85
	US Monastirienne	37%	2.70
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	28%	3.63
	Under 2.5	72%	1.38
Both teams to score	Yes	37%	2.72
	No	63%	1.58
Double chance	1X (CA Bizertin or draw)	63%	1.59
	12 (either side)	65%	1.54
	X2 (draw or US Monastirienne)	72%	1.39
Handicap -1	US Monastirienne win by 2+	15%	6.83
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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