Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien preview

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer faces CS Sfaxien with a model 1X2 probability of 28% for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer to win, 39% for a draw, and 33% for CS Sfaxien to win. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 24%. The low probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 19% and both teams to score at 29% suggest a tight match.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer has an expected goals figure of 0.71, while CS Sfaxien sits slightly higher at 0.79. Recent form shows Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer with two draws and two wins, while CS Sfaxien has three wins, two draws, and one loss. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the model’s predictions.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	Draw	CS Sfaxien
Model	28%	39%	33%
Market	—	—	—
Published	28%	39%	33%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer and CS Sfaxien expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.71Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

0.79CS Sfaxien

Total expected goals: 1.50
Attack rating (Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer / CS Sfaxien): 1.05 / 1.57
Defence rating (Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer / CS Sfaxien): 0.70 / 0.65

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 23.6% 16.3% 6.9% 1.8% 0.4% 1 14.6% 13.8% 4.9% 1.3% 0.3% 2 5.7% 4.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 3 1.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer goals. Columns: CS Sfaxien goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 76%

Over 1.5 45%

Over 2.5 19%

Over 3.5 7%

Both teams to score: 29%
No goals (0–0): 24%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs CS Sfaxien

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	28%	3.55
	Draw	39%	2.55
	CS Sfaxien	33%	3.07
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	19%	5.23
	Under 2.5	81%	1.24
Both teams to score	Yes	29%	3.45
	No	71%	1.41
Double chance	1X (Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or draw)	67%	1.48
	12 (either side)	61%	1.64
	X2 (draw or CS Sfaxien)	72%	1.39
Handicap -1	CS Sfaxien win by 2+	11%	9.21
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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