Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs AS Marsa Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs AS Marsa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	Draw	AS Marsa
Model	54%	28%	17%
Market	—	—	—
Published	54%	28%	17%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.75.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane and AS Marsa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.51Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

0.75AS Marsa

Total expected goals: 2.25
Attack rating (Jeunesse Sportive Omrane / AS Marsa): 1.20 / 0.88
Defence rating (Jeunesse Sportive Omrane / AS Marsa): 1.19 / 1.20

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs AS Marsa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.7% 6.7% 2.9% 0.7% 0.2% 1 14.7% 13.0% 4.4% 1.1% 0.2% 2 11.9% 8.9% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 3 6.0% 4.5% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 3.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane goals. Columns: AS Marsa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs AS Marsa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 67%

Over 2.5 39%

Over 3.5 19%

Both teams to score: 42%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs AS Marsa

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	54%	1.84
	Draw	28%	3.52
	AS Marsa	17%	5.79
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	39%	2.55
	Under 2.5	61%	1.64
Both teams to score	Yes	42%	2.38
	No	58%	1.73
Double chance	1X (Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or draw)	83%	1.21
	12 (either side)	72%	1.40
	X2 (draw or AS Marsa)	46%	2.19
Handicap -1	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win by 2+	29%	3.46
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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