ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	ES Metlaoui	Draw	Stade Tunisien
Model	32%	38%	30%
Market	—	—	—
Published	32%	38%	30%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

ES Metlaoui and Stade Tunisien expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.80ES Metlaoui

0.77Stade Tunisien

Total expected goals: 1.57
Attack rating (ES Metlaoui / Stade Tunisien): 0.73 / 1.13
Defence rating (ES Metlaoui / Stade Tunisien): 0.95 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 22.1% 14.7% 6.1% 1.6% 0.4% 1 15.4% 14.1% 4.9% 1.3% 0.3% 2 6.7% 5.1% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 3 1.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: ES Metlaoui goals. Columns: Stade Tunisien goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 78%

Over 1.5 48%

Over 2.5 21%

Over 3.5 7%

Both teams to score: 31%
No goals (0–0): 22%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	ES Metlaoui	32%	3.14
	Draw	38%	2.61
	Stade Tunisien	30%	3.35
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	21%	4.80
	Under 2.5	79%	1.26
Both teams to score	Yes	31%	3.25
	No	69%	1.44
Double chance	1X (ES Metlaoui or draw)	70%	1.43
	12 (either side)	62%	1.62
	X2 (draw or Stade Tunisien)	68%	1.47
Handicap -1	ES Metlaoui win by 2+	11%	9.33
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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