ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	ES Zarzis	Draw	ES Hammam-Sousse
Model	61%	27%	12%
Market	—	—	—
Published	61%	27%	12%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.53.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

ES Zarzis and ES Hammam-Sousse expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55ES Zarzis

0.53ES Hammam-Sousse

Total expected goals: 2.08
Attack rating (ES Zarzis / ES Hammam-Sousse): 1.19 / 0.70
Defence rating (ES Zarzis / ES Hammam-Sousse): 1.06 / 1.25

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.5% 5.6% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 1 18.3% 11.3% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 2 15.0% 8.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 3 7.7% 4.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 4.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: ES Zarzis goals. Columns: ES Hammam-Sousse goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%

Over 1.5 63%

Over 2.5 35%

Over 3.5 16%

Both teams to score: 34%
No goals (0–0): 14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam-Sousse

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	ES Zarzis	61%	1.63
	Draw	27%	3.68
	ES Hammam-Sousse	12%	8.68
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	35%	2.90
	Under 2.5	65%	1.53
Both teams to score	Yes	34%	2.98
	No	66%	1.51
Double chance	1X (ES Zarzis or draw)	88%	1.13
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or ES Hammam-Sousse)	39%	2.58
Handicap -1	ES Zarzis win by 2+	34%	2.95
	Push (exactly one goal)	27%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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