ES Sahel vs CS Hammam-Lif Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

ES Sahel vs CS Hammam-Lif: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	ES Sahel	Draw	CS Hammam-Lif
Model	51%	33%	16%
Market	—	—	—
Published	51%	33%	16%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.22 vs 0.57.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

ES Sahel and CS Hammam-Lif expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.22ES Sahel

0.57CS Hammam-Lif

Total expected goals: 1.79
Attack rating (ES Sahel / CS Hammam-Lif): 1.10 / 0.56
Defence rating (ES Sahel / CS Hammam-Lif): 1.45 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ES Sahel vs CS Hammam-Lif score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.8% 8.4% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 1 19.1% 12.8% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% 2 12.4% 7.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 3 5.0% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 2.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: ES Sahel goals. Columns: CS Hammam-Lif goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ES Sahel vs CS Hammam-Lif goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 82%

Over 1.5 55%

Over 2.5 27%

Over 3.5 11%

Both teams to score: 32%
No goals (0–0): 18%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ES Sahel vs CS Hammam-Lif

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	ES Sahel	51%	1.96
	Draw	33%	3.05
	CS Hammam-Lif	16%	6.14
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	27%	3.74
	Under 2.5	73%	1.37
Both teams to score	Yes	32%	3.13
	No	68%	1.47
Double chance	1X (ES Sahel or draw)	84%	1.19
	12 (either side)	67%	1.49
	X2 (draw or CS Hammam-Lif)	49%	2.04
Handicap -1	ES Sahel win by 2+	24%	4.20
	Push (exactly one goal)	27%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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