US Ben Guerdane vs Club Africain Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

US Ben Guerdane vs Club Africain preview

The fixture between US Ben Guerdane and Club Africain shows a 42% probability for Club Africain to win, compared to just 21% for US Ben Guerdane. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 0.63 for US Ben Guerdane and 0.99 for Club Africain.

However, the match could deviate from this prediction if US Ben Guerdane improves their scoring, as they have shown some positive form with two wins in their last five matches. Additionally, both teams to score has a 31% probability, indicating that there is a chance for US Ben Guerdane to find the net. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the model's predictions.

US Ben Guerdane vs Club Africain: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	US Ben Guerdane	Draw	Club Africain
Model	21%	37%	42%
Market	—	—	—
Published	21%	37%	42%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.99 vs 0.63.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

US Ben Guerdane and Club Africain expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.63US Ben Guerdane

0.99Club Africain

Total expected goals: 1.62
Attack rating (US Ben Guerdane / Club Africain): 1.09 / 1.45
Defence rating (US Ben Guerdane / Club Africain): 0.96 / 0.55

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

US Ben Guerdane vs Club Africain score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 21.0% 18.4% 9.7% 3.2% 1.0% 1 11.2% 13.6% 6.1% 2.0% 0.6% 2 3.9% 3.9% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 3 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: US Ben Guerdane goals. Columns: Club Africain goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

US Ben Guerdane vs Club Africain goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 79%

Over 1.5 49%

Over 2.5 22%

Over 3.5 8%

Both teams to score: 31%
No goals (0–0): 21%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for US Ben Guerdane vs Club Africain

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	US Ben Guerdane	21%	4.67
	Draw	37%	2.73
	Club Africain	42%	2.39
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	22%	4.51
	Under 2.5	78%	1.28
Both teams to score	Yes	31%	3.27
	No	69%	1.44
Double chance	1X (US Ben Guerdane or draw)	58%	1.72
	12 (either side)	63%	1.58
	X2 (draw or Club Africain)	79%	1.27
Handicap -1	Club Africain win by 2+	17%	5.97
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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