Geita Gold vs Fountain Gate preview
In the Tanzania Premier League fixture between Geita Gold and Fountain Gate, the 1X2 probabilities show Geita Gold at 47%, while Fountain Gate is at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 11% of the time according to our model.
Geita Gold has an expected goals figure of 1.51 compared to Fountain Gate's 1.03, suggesting they may have the edge in scoring. However, the recent form indicates Geita Gold has lost 4 of their last 5 matches, and Fountain Gate has not won in their last 6 games. This could impact the expected outcome, making it less predictable. Both teams to score stands at 51%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides.
Geita Gold vs Fountain Gate: model vs market
| Source | Geita Gold | Draw | Fountain Gate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Geita Gold and Fountain Gate expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (Geita Gold / Fountain Gate)
- 0.90 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Geita Gold / Fountain Gate)
- 1.53 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Geita Gold vs Fountain Gate score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Geita Gold goals. Columns: Fountain Gate goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Geita Gold vs Fountain Gate goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Geita Gold vs Fountain Gate
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Geita Gold | 47% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Fountain Gate | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.94 |
| No | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Geita Gold or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Fountain Gate) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Geita Gold win by 2+ | 24% | 4.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Geita Gold and Fountain Gate recent form
Geita Gold
1W 1D 4L
Fountain Gate
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Geita Gold at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
Fountain Gate away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Geita Gold at home only, Fountain Gate away only.
Geita Gold vs Fountain Gate head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Geita Gold 1 · draws 1 · Fountain Gate 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-25 | Fountain Gate | 2-1 | Geita Gold | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2023-12-21 | Geita Gold | 1-0 | Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2022-12-30 | Fountain Gate | 2-1 | Geita Gold | Ligi kuu Bara |
| 2022-09-21 | Geita Gold | 1-1 | Fountain Gate | Ligi kuu Bara |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Polisi Tanzania vs Pamba Jiji — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Simba vs Mbeya City 2026-10-24
- Azam v Mashujaa — match page 2026-10-24
- Dodoma Jiji vs Young Africans — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Singida Black Stars vs Tabora United 2026-10-24
- JKT Tanzania v Kagera Sugar — match page 2026-10-24
- Namungo vs Coastal Union — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Geita Gold, previous: Geita Gold vs Dodoma Jiji: odds and pick
- Geita Gold, next: Tabora United vs Geita Gold prediction
- Fountain Gate, previous: Fountain Gate v Pamba Jiji analysis
- Fountain Gate, next: Fountain Gate – Simba, 2026-10-28