Tusker vs Singida Black Stars Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Tusker vs Singida Black Stars preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup fixture between Tusker and Singida Black Stars, the 1X2 probabilities show Tusker at 31%, a draw at 28%, and Singida Black Stars at 41%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance according to our model.

The expected goals are Tusker 1.27 and Singida Black Stars 1.48, indicating a competitive match. The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 52%, while both teams to score is at 57%. However, Tusker's recent form of W-D-D-L-L-W may impact their performance against a strong Singida Black Stars side, who have a recent record of W-L-W-W-W-L.

Tusker vs Singida Black Stars: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Tusker	Draw	Singida Black Stars
Model	31%	28%	41%
Market	—	—	—
Published	31%	28%	41%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Tusker and Singida Black Stars expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.20Tusker

1.41Singida Black Stars

Total expected goals: 2.61
Attack rating (Tusker / Singida Black Stars): 0.77 / 1.96
Defence rating (Tusker / Singida Black Stars): 0.79 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tusker vs Singida Black Stars score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.6% 9.1% 7.3% 3.4% 1.7% 1 7.6% 13.7% 8.8% 4.1% 2.0% 2 5.3% 7.5% 5.3% 2.5% 1.2% 3 2.1% 3.0% 2.1% 1.0% 0.5% 4+ 0.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Tusker goals. Columns: Singida Black Stars goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tusker vs Singida Black Stars goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 75%

Over 2.5 48%

Over 3.5 27%

Both teams to score: 57%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tusker vs Singida Black Stars

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Tusker	31%	3.21
	Draw	28%	3.60
	Singida Black Stars	41%	2.43
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52%	1.93
	Under 2.5	48%	2.08
Both teams to score	Yes	57%	1.76
	No	43%	2.31
Double chance	1X (Tusker or draw)	59%	1.70
	12 (either side)	72%	1.38
	X2 (draw or Singida Black Stars)	69%	1.45
Handicap -1	Singida Black Stars win by 2+	20%	5.03
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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