Virunga vs 1º de Agosto Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Virunga vs 1º de Agosto preview

The fixture between Virunga and 1º de Agosto shows a 38% probability for Virunga to win, compared to 27% for 1º de Agosto and a 35% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15% likelihood. Virunga has an expected goals figure of 1.00, while 1º de Agosto sits at 0.81.

While the model suggests a low chance for Over 2.5 goals at 27% and a 36% probability for both teams to score, these outcomes could change based on the teams' performance on the day. Virunga's recent win contrasts with 1º de Agosto's mixed form of two wins, one draw, and one loss.

Virunga vs 1º de Agosto: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Virunga	Draw	1º de Agosto
Model	38%	35%	27%
Market	—	—	—
Published	38%	35%	27%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Virunga and 1º de Agosto expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.00Virunga

0.811º de Agosto

Total expected goals: 1.80
Attack rating (Virunga / 1º de Agosto): 0.98 / 1.06
Defence rating (Virunga / 1º de Agosto): 0.83 / 0.72

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Virunga vs 1º de Agosto score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.8% 12.0% 5.4% 1.4% 0.3% 1 15.1% 14.6% 5.3% 1.4% 0.3% 2 8.2% 6.6% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 3 2.7% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 4+ 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Virunga goals. Columns: 1º de Agosto goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Virunga vs 1º de Agosto goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 82%

Over 1.5 55%

Over 2.5 27%

Over 3.5 11%

Both teams to score: 36%
No goals (0–0): 18%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Virunga vs 1º de Agosto

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Virunga	38%	2.67
	Draw	35%	2.83
	1º de Agosto	27%	3.68
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	27%	3.70
	Under 2.5	73%	1.37
Both teams to score	Yes	36%	2.76
	No	64%	1.57
Double chance	1X (Virunga or draw)	73%	1.37
	12 (either side)	65%	1.55
	X2 (draw or 1º de Agosto)	62%	1.60
Handicap -1	Virunga win by 2+	15%	6.72
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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