Durban City vs ASPL 2000 Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Durban City vs ASPL 2000 preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup fixture between Durban City and ASPL 2000, the 1X2 probabilities show Durban City at 37%, a draw at 38%, and ASPL 2000 at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 21%, indicating a low-scoring match.

Both teams to score stands at 31%, while Over 2.5 goals is only 22%. Durban City has an expected goals figure of 0.90, while ASPL 2000 sits at 0.71. This suggests a potential struggle for both teams to find the net. However, if either team performs better than expected, the match dynamics could change.

Durban City vs ASPL 2000: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Durban City	Draw	ASPL 2000
Model	37%	38%	26%
Market	—	—	—
Published	37%	38%	26%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Durban City and ASPL 2000 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.90Durban City

0.71ASPL 2000

Total expected goals: 1.61
Attack rating (Durban City / ASPL 2000): 0.76 / 0.96
Defence rating (Durban City / ASPL 2000): 0.81 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Durban City vs ASPL 2000 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 21.3% 12.9% 5.0% 1.2% 0.2% 1 16.7% 14.1% 4.5% 1.1% 0.2% 2 8.1% 5.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 3 2.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Durban City goals. Columns: ASPL 2000 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Durban City vs ASPL 2000 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 79%

Over 1.5 49%

Over 2.5 22%

Over 3.5 8%

Both teams to score: 31%
No goals (0–0): 21%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Durban City vs ASPL 2000

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Durban City	37%	2.73
	Draw	38%	2.67
	ASPL 2000	26%	3.87
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	22%	4.56
	Under 2.5	78%	1.28
Both teams to score	Yes	31%	3.18
	No	69%	1.46
Double chance	1X (Durban City or draw)	74%	1.35
	12 (either side)	62%	1.60
	X2 (draw or ASPL 2000)	63%	1.58
Handicap -1	Durban City win by 2+	14%	7.38
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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