Diarra vs ASC Kara Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

Diarra vs ASC Kara preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup fixture between Diarra and ASC Kara, the 1X2 probabilities show Diarra at 45%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 12%. Diarra's expected goals stand at 1.35, while ASC Kara has 0.94.

However, there are factors that could challenge this prediction. Both teams to score has a probability of 46%, and the chance for Over 2.5 goals is at 40%. ASC Kara's recent form includes a mix of results, which could influence their performance. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the forecast.

Diarra vs ASC Kara: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Diarra	Draw	ASC Kara
Model	45%	30%	25%
Market	—	—	—
Published	45%	30%	25%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.94.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Diarra and ASC Kara expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.35Diarra

0.94ASC Kara

Total expected goals: 2.28
Attack rating (Diarra / ASC Kara): 0.96 / 1.21
Defence rating (Diarra / ASC Kara): 0.84 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Diarra vs ASC Kara score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.5% 8.2% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 1 12.5% 14.1% 6.0% 1.9% 0.5% 2 9.3% 8.7% 4.1% 1.3% 0.4% 3 4.2% 3.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 1.9% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Diarra goals. Columns: ASC Kara goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Diarra vs ASC Kara goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 68%

Over 2.5 40%

Over 3.5 20%

Both teams to score: 46%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Diarra vs ASC Kara

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Diarra	45%	2.22
	Draw	30%	3.30
	ASC Kara	25%	4.05
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	40%	2.50
	Under 2.5	60%	1.67
Both teams to score	Yes	46%	2.16
	No	54%	1.86
Double chance	1X (Diarra or draw)	75%	1.33
	12 (either side)	70%	1.43
	X2 (draw or ASC Kara)	55%	1.82
Handicap -1	Diarra win by 2+	22%	4.57
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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