AFAD vs CS Sfaxien Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

AFAD vs CS Sfaxien preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup fixture between AFAD and CS Sfaxien, the 1X2 probabilities show CS Sfaxien at 47%, compared to AFAD at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 12% chance, indicating a potential edge for CS Sfaxien.

Both teams to score stands at 47%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 42%. AFAD has an expected goals figure of 0.94, while CS Sfaxien's is higher at 1.41. The recent form shows AFAD with D-D-L-W-W-D and CS Sfaxien with W-D-W-L-W-D. This suggests that AFAD may struggle to find the net, which could impact the prediction.

AFAD vs CS Sfaxien: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	AFAD	Draw	CS Sfaxien
Model	24%	30%	47%
Market	—	—	—
Published	24%	30%	47%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.94.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

AFAD and CS Sfaxien expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.94AFAD

1.41CS Sfaxien

Total expected goals: 2.35
Attack rating (AFAD / CS Sfaxien): 1.20 / 1.24
Defence rating (AFAD / CS Sfaxien): 1.24 / 0.55

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AFAD vs CS Sfaxien score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.8% 12.2% 9.5% 4.5% 2.1% 1 7.7% 13.9% 8.9% 4.2% 2.0% 2 4.2% 5.9% 4.2% 2.0% 1.0% 3 1.3% 1.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 4+ 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: AFAD goals. Columns: CS Sfaxien goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AFAD vs CS Sfaxien goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 69%

Over 2.5 42%

Over 3.5 21%

Both teams to score: 47%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AFAD vs CS Sfaxien

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	AFAD	24%	4.20
	Draw	30%	3.38
	CS Sfaxien	47%	2.14
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	42%	2.39
	Under 2.5	58%	1.72
Both teams to score	Yes	47%	2.11
	No	53%	1.90
Double chance	1X (AFAD or draw)	53%	1.87
	12 (either side)	70%	1.42
	X2 (draw or CS Sfaxien)	76%	1.31
Handicap -1	CS Sfaxien win by 2+	23%	4.28
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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