ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup fixture between ES Zarzis and Réal Bamako, the 1X2 probabilities show ES Zarzis at 43%, a draw at 34%, and Réal Bamako at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring 16% of the time, indicating a tight match.

ES Zarzis has an expected goals figure of 1.13 compared to Réal Bamako's 0.75. However, the chances of Over 2.5 goals stand at just 29%, while both teams to score is at 37%. This suggests that while ES Zarzis is favored, a low-scoring game is likely, and any unexpected performance from Réal Bamako could change the outcome.

ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	ES Zarzis	Draw	Réal Bamako
Model	43%	34%	23%
Market	—	—	—
Published	43%	34%	23%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.13 vs 0.75.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

ES Zarzis and Réal Bamako expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.13ES Zarzis

0.75Réal Bamako

Total expected goals: 1.87
Attack rating (ES Zarzis / Réal Bamako): 0.95 / 0.95
Defence rating (ES Zarzis / Réal Bamako): 0.86 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.6% 10.2% 4.3% 1.1% 0.2% 1 16.0% 14.2% 4.8% 1.2% 0.3% 2 9.8% 7.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 3 3.7% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: ES Zarzis goals. Columns: Réal Bamako goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%

Over 1.5 57%

Over 2.5 29%

Over 3.5 12%

Both teams to score: 37%
No goals (0–0): 17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	ES Zarzis	43%	2.31
	Draw	34%	2.95
	Réal Bamako	23%	4.36
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	29%	3.46
	Under 2.5	71%	1.41
Both teams to score	Yes	37%	2.71
	No	63%	1.58
Double chance	1X (ES Zarzis or draw)	77%	1.30
	12 (either side)	66%	1.51
	X2 (draw or Réal Bamako)	57%	1.76
Handicap -1	ES Zarzis win by 2+	19%	5.31
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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