Masr vs Azam Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

Masr vs Azam preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup fixture between Masr and Azam, the 1X2 probabilities show Masr at 40%, while Azam sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. The expected goals indicate Masr at 1.27 and Azam at 1.06, suggesting a tight match.

However, the 41% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score indicate that there could be more action than expected. Recent form also plays a role, with Masr's last five matches showing 3 wins and 2 losses, while Azam has 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. This could lead to a different outcome than the probabilities suggest.

Masr vs Azam: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Masr	Draw	Azam
Model	40%	31%	30%
Market	—	—	—
Published	40%	31%	30%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Masr and Azam expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.19Masr

1.08Azam

Total expected goals: 2.27
Attack rating (Masr / Azam): 1.16 / 1.31
Defence rating (Masr / Azam): 0.90 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Masr vs Azam score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.7% 9.9% 6.1% 2.2% 0.8% 1 10.9% 14.6% 7.2% 2.6% 0.9% 2 7.3% 7.9% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5% 3 2.9% 3.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 1.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Masr goals. Columns: Azam goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Masr vs Azam goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 68%

Over 2.5 40%

Over 3.5 19%

Both teams to score: 48%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Masr vs Azam

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Masr	40%	2.51
	Draw	31%	3.27
	Azam	30%	3.37
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	41%	2.42
	Under 2.5	59%	1.70
Both teams to score	Yes	48%	2.06
	No	52%	1.94
Double chance	1X (Masr or draw)	70%	1.42
	12 (either side)	69%	1.44
	X2 (draw or Azam)	60%	1.66
Handicap -1	Masr win by 2+	16%	6.15
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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