El Mokawloon vs Masr: model vs market
| Source | El Mokawloon | Draw | Masr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | 31% | 34% | 35% |
| Published | 32% | 33% | 35% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
El Mokawloon vs Masr odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Masr, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Mokawloon | 3.19 | 3.00 | -0.19 |
| Draw | 2.54 | 2.69 | +0.15 |
| Masr | 2.54 | 2.60 | +0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
El Mokawloon and Masr expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (El Mokawloon / Masr)
- 1.21 / 1.31
- Defence rating (El Mokawloon / Masr)
- 0.90 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
El Mokawloon vs Masr score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: El Mokawloon goals. Columns: Masr goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
El Mokawloon vs Masr goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for El Mokawloon vs Masr
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | El Mokawloon | 32% | 3.11 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Masr | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.98 |
| No | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (El Mokawloon or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| X2 (draw or Masr) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Masr win by 2+ | 14% | 6.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
El Mokawloon and Masr recent form
El Mokawloon
3W 1D 2L
Masr
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
El Mokawloon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Masr away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: El Mokawloon at home only, Masr away only.
Expected lineups
El Mokawloon lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 18 Mohamed Fawzi
- 23 J. Ochaya
- 3 Mohamed Hamed
- 4 Hassan Hussein
- 26 Ahmed Magdy Kahraba
- 12 Omar El Wahsh
- 14 Mostafa Gamal
- 19 A. Aouled Behi
- 6 D. Dokou
Bench: Mahmoud Abou El Saoud, Ahmed Fouad, Mido Gaber, Joackiam Ojera, Khaled Abdel Fattah, Omar Kamal, Mohamed Abdelnasser
El Mokawloon vs Masr head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: El Mokawloon 1 · draws 4 · Masr 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Masr | 0-0 | El Mokawloon | Egypt Premier League |
| 2026-03-30 | El Mokawloon | 1-1 | Masr | League Cup |
| 2026-03-26 | Masr | 0-0 | El Mokawloon | League Cup |
| 2025-08-09 | El Mokawloon | 0-2 | Masr | Egypt Premier League |
| 2024-05-03 | Masr | 0-1 | El Mokawloon | Premier League |
| 2023-10-22 | El Mokawloon | 3-3 | Masr | Premier League |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Olympic El Qanah v AL Masry — match page 2026-10-11
- Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Future FC v Enppi — match page 2026-10-12
- Pyramids FC vs Ceramica Cleopatra — team news & stats 2026-10-12
- Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla 2026-10-12
- National Bank of Egypt v El Geish — match page 2026-10-13
- Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Petrojet vs Wadi Degla 2026-10-13
Before and after this match
- El Mokawloon, next: Enppi vs El Mokawloon prediction
- Masr, next: Masr vs Azam: odds and pick