El Mokawloon vs Masr Prediction & Betting Tips 12/10/2026

El Mokawloon vs Masr: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	El Mokawloon	Draw	Masr
Model	37%	30%	33%
Market	28%	36%	36%
Published	31%	34%	35%
Edge	+8%	-6%	-3%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.68, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.

El Mokawloon vs Masr odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Masr, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 2.54Now 2.54 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
El Mokawloon	3.19	3.19	+0.00
Draw	2.54	2.54	+0.00
Masr	2.54	2.54	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

El Mokawloon and Masr expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.25El Mokawloon

1.17Masr

Total expected goals: 2.42
Attack rating (El Mokawloon / Masr): 1.21 / 1.31
Defence rating (El Mokawloon / Masr): 0.90 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

El Mokawloon vs Masr score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.2% 9.1% 6.1% 2.4% 0.9% 1 9.8% 14.3% 7.6% 3.0% 1.1% 2 6.9% 8.1% 4.8% 1.9% 0.7% 3 2.9% 3.4% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: El Mokawloon goals. Columns: Masr goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

El Mokawloon vs Masr goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 71%

Over 2.5 44%

Over 3.5 23%

Both teams to score: 51%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for El Mokawloon vs Masr

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	El Mokawloon	31%	3.27
	Draw	34%	2.91
	Masr	35%	2.85
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	44%	2.29
	Under 2.5	56%	1.77
Both teams to score	Yes	51%	1.98
	No	49%	2.02
Double chance	1X (El Mokawloon or draw)	65%	1.54
	12 (either side)	66%	1.52
	X2 (draw or Masr)	69%	1.44
Handicap -1	Masr win by 2+	14%	7.01
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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