Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly: model vs market
| Source | Zamalek SC | Draw | Al Ahly |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 33% | 23% |
| Market | 25% | 30% | 45% |
| Published | 30% | 31% | 39% |
| Edge | +5% | +1% | -5% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al Ahly, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zamalek SC | 4.29 | 3.62 | -0.67 |
| Draw | 3.14 | 3.07 | -0.07 |
| Al Ahly | 1.85 | 2.05 | +0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Zamalek SC and Al Ahly expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.97
- Attack rating (Zamalek SC / Al Ahly)
- 1.39 / 1.56
- Defence rating (Zamalek SC / Al Ahly)
- 0.50 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Zamalek SC goals. Columns: Al Ahly goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zamalek SC | 30% | 3.32 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Al Ahly | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.57 |
| No | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Zamalek SC or draw) | 61% | 1.65 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Al Ahly) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Ahly win by 2+ | 7% | 13.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Zamalek SC and Al Ahly recent form
Zamalek SC
6W 0D 0L
Al Ahly
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Zamalek SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al Ahly away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Zamalek SC at home only, Al Ahly away only.
Expected lineups
Zamalek SC lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 37 Al Mahdi Soliman
- 3 M. Bentayg
- 28 Mahmoud Hamdi El Wensh
- 24 Mohamed Ismail
- 4 Omar Gaber
- 12 Ahmed Rabie
- 17 Mohamed Shehata
- 31 Ahmed Sherif
- 19 Abdalla El Said
- 13 Ahmed Abou El Fotouh
- 81 Chico Banza
Bench: Mahmoud Gehad, Hossam Ashraf, Naser Mansy, Ahmed Esho, A. Kaied, Mostafa El Zenary, M. Hamad, Oday Dabbagh, Mohamed Awad
Al Ahly lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 31 Mostafa Shobeir
- 24 Tawfik Mohamed
- 2 Yassin Marei
- 3 A. Dari
- 30 Mohamed Hany
- 13 Marwan Attia
- 12 Akram Tawfik
- 17 A. Bencharki
- 22 Emam Ashour
- 25 Zizo
- 9 S. Benjdida
Bench: Mohamed El Shenawy, Hady Reyad, Taher Mohamed, Ahmed Hashem, M. Bakrar, Hussein El Shahat, Omar El Saeey, Mohamed Magdi Kafsha, Karim Fouad
Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Zamalek SC 2 · draws 3 · Al Ahly 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Zamalek SC | 0-3 | Al Ahly | Egypt Premier League |
| 2025-11-09 | Al Ahly | 2-0 | Zamalek SC | Super Cup |
| 2025-09-29 | Al Ahly | 2-1 | Zamalek SC | Egypt Premier League |
| 2025-03-11 | Zamalek SC | 3-0 | Al Ahly | Premier League |
| 2025-02-22 | Al Ahly | 1-1 | Zamalek SC | Premier League |
| 2024-10-24 | Al Ahly | 0-0 | Zamalek SC | Super Cup |
| 2024-09-27 | Al Ahly | 1-1 | Zamalek SC | CAF Super Cup |
| 2024-04-15 | Zamalek SC | 2-1 | Al Ahly | Premier League |
| 2024-03-08 | Zamalek SC | 0-2 | Al Ahly | Cup |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Olympic El Qanah v AL Masry — match page 2026-10-11
- El Mokawloon vs Masr 2026-10-12
- Future FC v Enppi — match page 2026-10-12
- Pyramids FC vs Ceramica Cleopatra — team news & stats 2026-10-12
- Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla 2026-10-12
- National Bank of Egypt v El Geish — match page 2026-10-13
- Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Petrojet vs Wadi Degla 2026-10-13
Before and after this match
- Zamalek SC, next: APR v Zamalek SC analysis
- Al Ahly, next: Kitara vs Al Ahly prediction