Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Zamalek SC	Draw	Al Ahly
Model	44%	33%	23%
Market	22%	28%	50%
Published	27%	29%	43%
Edge	+23%	+5%	-27%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.

Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Al Ahly, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.85Now 1.83 -0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Zamalek SC	4.29	4.25	-0.04
Draw	3.14	3.28	+0.14
Al Ahly	1.85	1.83	-0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Zamalek SC and Al Ahly expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.19Zamalek SC

0.78Al Ahly

Total expected goals: 1.97
Attack rating (Zamalek SC / Al Ahly): 1.39 / 1.56
Defence rating (Zamalek SC / Al Ahly): 0.50 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.2% 9.6% 4.2% 1.1% 0.3% 1 15.3% 14.2% 5.0% 1.3% 0.3% 2 9.9% 7.7% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 3 3.9% 3.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Zamalek SC goals. Columns: Al Ahly goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%

Over 1.5 60%

Over 2.5 32%

Over 3.5 14%

Both teams to score: 39%
No goals (0–0): 15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Zamalek SC	27%	3.66
	Draw	29%	3.42
	Al Ahly	43%	2.30
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	32%	3.17
	Under 2.5	68%	1.46
Both teams to score	Yes	39%	2.57
	No	61%	1.64
Double chance	1X (Zamalek SC or draw)	57%	1.77
	12 (either side)	71%	1.41
	X2 (draw or Al Ahly)	73%	1.38
Handicap -1	Al Ahly win by 2+	7%	13.53
	Push (exactly one goal)	15%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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