Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol Prediction & Betting Tips 13/10/2026

Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Abu Qair Semad	Draw	Asyut Petrol
Model	25%	41%	34%
Market	—	—	—
Published	25%	41%	34%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Abu Qair Semad and Asyut Petrol expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.61Abu Qair Semad

0.77Asyut Petrol

Total expected goals: 1.38
Attack rating (Abu Qair Semad / Asyut Petrol): 0.58 / 0.58
Defence rating (Abu Qair Semad / Asyut Petrol): 1.33 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 26.4% 18.1% 7.4% 1.9% 0.4% 1 14.3% 13.0% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3% 2 4.7% 3.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 3 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Abu Qair Semad goals. Columns: Asyut Petrol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 74%

Over 1.5 41%

Over 2.5 16%

Over 3.5 5%

Both teams to score: 26%
No goals (0–0): 26%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Abu Qair Semad	25%	4.00
	Draw	41%	2.45
	Asyut Petrol	34%	2.93
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	16%	6.20
	Under 2.5	84%	1.19
Both teams to score	Yes	26%	3.89
	No	74%	1.35
Double chance	1X (Abu Qair Semad or draw)	66%	1.52
	12 (either side)	59%	1.69
	X2 (draw or Asyut Petrol)	75%	1.33
Handicap -1	Asyut Petrol win by 2+	11%	8.95
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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