Updated

Egypt Premier League · Matchday 6

Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol

· Borg El Arab Stadium, Alexandria

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Abu Qair Semad to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Abu Qair SemadDrawAsyut Petrol

Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAbu Qair SemadDrawAsyut Petrol
Model25%41%34%
Market43%33%24%
Published38%35%27%
Edge-4%+2%+2%
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 5 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Abu Qair Semad, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 2.13Now 2.15 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Abu Qair Semad2.132.15+0.02
Draw2.802.80+0.00
Asyut Petrol3.843.80-0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Abu Qair Semad and Asyut Petrol expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.62Abu Qair Semad
0.76Asyut Petrol
Total expected goals
1.38
Attack rating (Abu Qair Semad / Asyut Petrol)
0.58 / 0.58
Defence rating (Abu Qair Semad / Asyut Petrol)
1.32 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 26.3% 18.0% 7.3% 1.9% 0.4% 1 14.3% 13.0% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3% 2 4.8% 3.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 3 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Abu Qair Semad goals. Columns: Asyut Petrol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 74%
Over 1.5 41%
Over 2.5 16%
Over 3.5 5%
Both teams to score
26%
No goals (0–0)
26%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Abu Qair Semad38%2.60
Draw35%2.87
Asyut Petrol27%3.75
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.516%6.18
Under 2.584%1.19
Both teams to scoreYes26%3.88
No74%1.35
Double chance1X (Abu Qair Semad or draw)73%1.36
12 (either side)65%1.54
X2 (draw or Asyut Petrol)62%1.62
Handicap -1Abu Qair Semad win by 2+7%14.55
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Abu Qair Semad and Asyut Petrol recent form

Abu Qair Semad 1W 0D 4L
Asyut Petrol 0W 2D 3L

Last 5 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Abu Qair Semad at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Asyut Petrol away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Abu Qair Semad at home only, Asyut Petrol away only.

Expected lineups

Abu Qair Semad lineup · 4-5-1

  1. 25 Mohamed Zakaria Shika
  2. 27 Ahmed Dahesh
  3. 4 M. Dabash
  4. 20 Ahmed Awad
  5. 6 M. Alaa
  6. 22 Ahmed Khaled
  7. 15 O. Ibrahim
  8. 14 R. Milad
  9. 11 Mostafa Rahim
  10. 23 F. Akem
  11. 29 Ali Hussein

Bench: M. Genesh, Gaber Kamel, E. Hamdi, Mahmoud Abou Gouda, A. El Gazar, Y. Hamdi

Asyut Petrol lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 25 A. Ahmed
  2. 20 A. Shokry
  3. 5 Mahmoud Alaa
  4. 18 Mohamed Hesha
  5. 26 A. R. Al Khamisi
  6. 19 I. Abbas
  7. 7 Ahmed Younes
  8. 35 C. C. Bodne
  9. 9 M. Eid

Bench: Ahmed Magdy, Mostafa Sadafa, Ismail Ashraf, F. Abu Bakr, K. Abdel Aal

Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Abu Qair Semad 2 · draws 3 · Asyut Petrol 1.

Abu Qair SemadDrawsAsyut Petrol
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-15Abu Qair Semad1-0Asyut PetrolSecond League
2025-08-30Asyut Petrol0-0Abu Qair SemadSecond League
2025-04-30Asyut Petrol1-2Abu Qair SemadSecond League
2024-12-23Abu Qair Semad0-0Asyut PetrolSecond League
2024-02-27Asyut Petrol1-1Abu Qair SemadSecond League
2023-12-18Asyut Petrol2-1Abu Qair SemadSecond League

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match