AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad preview
In the Egypt Premier League fixture between AL Masry and Abu Qair Semad, the 1X2 probabilities show AL Masry at 48%, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0 at 17%. AL Masry's expected goals stand at 1.24, while Abu Qair Semad has a lower expected goals figure of 0.70.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Both teams to score is at 37%, and Over 2.5 goals is only at 31%. This suggests a possibility of a low-scoring match, which could impact the expected outcome. The recent form also indicates inconsistency, with AL Masry having a record of D-L-L-L-W-W and Abu Qair Semad at L-L-L-L-W.
AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad: model vs market
| Source | AL Masry | Draw | Abu Qair Semad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 31% | 21% |
| Market | 61% | 25% | 14% |
| Published | 58% | 26% | 16% |
| Edge | -14% | +7% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AL Masry, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AL Masry | 1.50 | 1.50 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.84 | 3.75 | -0.09 |
| Abu Qair Semad | 6.54 | 6.56 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AL Masry and Abu Qair Semad expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.06
- Attack rating (AL Masry / Abu Qair Semad)
- 0.89 / 0.63
- Defence rating (AL Masry / Abu Qair Semad)
- 1.21 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AL Masry goals. Columns: Abu Qair Semad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AL Masry | 58% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Abu Qair Semad | 16% | 6.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.49 |
| No | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AL Masry or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Abu Qair Semad) | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | AL Masry win by 2+ | 23% | 4.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AL Masry and Abu Qair Semad recent form
AL Masry
2W 1D 3L
Abu Qair Semad
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AL Masry at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Abu Qair Semad away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: AL Masry at home only, Abu Qair Semad away only.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- El Gouna FC vs Smouha SC — team news & stats 2026-10-19
- Enppi v El Mokawloon — match page 2026-10-19
- Asyut Petrol vs Zamalek SC 2026-10-20
- Masr vs Future FC 2026-10-20
- Wadi Degla vs National Bank of Egypt — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- El Geish v Pyramids FC — match page 2026-10-20
- Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Al Ahly v Olympic El Qanah — match page 2026-10-21
Before and after this match
- AL Masry, previous: Olympic El Qanah vs AL Masry prediction
- Abu Qair Semad, previous: Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol: odds and pick