El Gouna FC vs Smouha SC preview
In the upcoming match between El Gouna FC and Smouha SC, the 1X2 probabilities show Smouha SC at 37% and El Gouna FC at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which has a 13% chance according to our model. El Gouna FC has struggled recently with 4 losses and 2 draws in their last 6 matches, while Smouha SC has a mixed form with 2 wins, 3 losses, and 1 draw.
The expected goals are 0.88 for El Gouna FC and 0.75 for Smouha SC, indicating a low-scoring affair. With only 22% for Over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, the match could end up being tighter than predicted. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
El Gouna FC vs Smouha SC: model vs market
| Source | El Gouna FC | Draw | Smouha SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 37% | 27% |
| Market | 25% | 34% | 41% |
| Published | 28% | 35% | 38% |
| Edge | +10% | +3% | -14% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
El Gouna FC vs Smouha SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Smouha SC, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Gouna FC | 3.73 | 3.64 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 2.67 | 2.68 | +0.01 |
| Smouha SC | 2.29 | 2.22 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
El Gouna FC and Smouha SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.63
- Attack rating (El Gouna FC / Smouha SC)
- 0.89 / 0.65
- Defence rating (El Gouna FC / Smouha SC)
- 1.14 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
El Gouna FC vs Smouha SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: El Gouna FC goals. Columns: Smouha SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
El Gouna FC vs Smouha SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 21%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for El Gouna FC vs Smouha SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | El Gouna FC | 28% | 3.63 |
| Draw | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Smouha SC | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22% | 4.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.11 |
| No | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (El Gouna FC or draw) | 62% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| X2 (draw or Smouha SC) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Smouha SC win by 2+ | 9% | 11.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
El Gouna FC and Smouha SC recent form
El Gouna FC
0W 2D 4L
Smouha SC
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
El Gouna FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
Smouha SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: El Gouna FC at home only, Smouha SC away only.
El Gouna FC vs Smouha SC head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: El Gouna FC 1 · draws 0 · Smouha SC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | Smouha SC | 0-1 | El Gouna FC | Egypt Premier League |
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- Al Ahly v Olympic El Qanah — match page 2026-10-21
Before and after this match
- El Gouna FC, previous: Al Ittihad – El Gouna FC, 2026-10-13
- Smouha SC, previous: Smouha SC – Ghazl El Mehalla, 2026-10-12