Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC preview
Asyut Petrol faces El Gouna FC with 1X2 probabilities showing Asyut Petrol at 29%, a draw at 34%, and El Gouna FC at 38%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 14% chance according to our model. Both teams to score sits at 34%, while Over 2.5 goals is at just 24%.
Both teams have struggled recently, with Asyut Petrol recording a form of L-W-L-L-L-D and El Gouna FC on a streak of L-L-L-L-L-D. The expected goals are close, with Asyut Petrol at 0.86 and El Gouna FC at 0.82. A low-scoring match could change the expected outcome if either team finds their scoring form.
Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC: model vs market
| Source | Asyut Petrol | Draw | El Gouna FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 37% | 30% |
| Market | 27% | 33% | 40% |
| Published | 29% | 34% | 38% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on El Gouna FC, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asyut Petrol | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 2.80 | 2.80 | +0.00 |
| El Gouna FC | 2.30 | 2.30 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Asyut Petrol and El Gouna FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.68
- Attack rating (Asyut Petrol / El Gouna FC)
- 0.67 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Asyut Petrol / El Gouna FC)
- 1.00 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Asyut Petrol goals. Columns: El Gouna FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 34%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Asyut Petrol | 29% | 3.51 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.95 | |
| El Gouna FC | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24% | 4.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34% | 2.97 |
| No | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Asyut Petrol or draw) | 62% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| X2 (draw or El Gouna FC) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | El Gouna FC win by 2+ | 10% | 9.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Asyut Petrol and El Gouna FC recent form
Asyut Petrol
1W 1D 4L
El Gouna FC
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Asyut Petrol at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
El Gouna FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Asyut Petrol at home only, El Gouna FC away only.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Zamalek SC v El Mokawloon — match page 2026-10-28
- Future FC vs Al Ahly — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Pyramids FC vs Wadi Degla 2026-10-29
- Al Ittihad vs El Geish — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Olympic El Qanah vs Enppi 2026-10-30
- Abu Qair Semad v Ghazl El Mehalla — match page 2026-10-31
- Petrojet vs Smouha SC — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Ceramica Cleopatra vs Masr 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Asyut Petrol, previous: Asyut Petrol v Zamalek SC analysis
- El Gouna FC, previous: El Gouna FC v Smouha SC analysis