Zamalek SC vs El Mokawloon preview
In the Egypt Premier League fixture between Zamalek SC and El Mokawloon, the 1X2 probabilities show Zamalek SC at 40%, a draw at 35%, and El Mokawloon at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 16% chance of occurring. Zamalek SC has a slight edge in expected goals at 1.05 compared to El Mokawloon’s 0.77.
While Zamalek SC has shown strong recent form with 5 wins in their last 6 matches, El Mokawloon has a mixed record, winning 4 of their last 6. The chance of Over 2.5 goals stands at 27%, and both teams to score is at 36%. This indicates that while Zamalek SC is favored, the match could still be tightly contested.
Zamalek SC vs El Mokawloon: model vs market
| Source | Zamalek SC | Draw | El Mokawloon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 36% | 21% |
| Market | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Published | 47% | 31% | 22% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.04 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Zamalek SC vs El Mokawloon odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Zamalek SC, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zamalek SC | 1.95 | 1.91 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.00 | 3.05 | +0.05 |
| El Mokawloon | 4.00 | 4.05 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Zamalek SC and El Mokawloon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.69
- Attack rating (Zamalek SC / El Mokawloon)
- 1.21 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Zamalek SC / El Mokawloon)
- 0.49 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Zamalek SC vs El Mokawloon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Zamalek SC goals. Columns: El Mokawloon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Zamalek SC vs El Mokawloon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Zamalek SC vs El Mokawloon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zamalek SC | 47% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 | |
| El Mokawloon | 22% | 4.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24% | 4.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.10 |
| No | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Zamalek SC or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or El Mokawloon) | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Zamalek SC win by 2+ | 18% | 5.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Zamalek SC and El Mokawloon recent form
Zamalek SC
5W 0D 1L
El Mokawloon
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Zamalek SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
El Mokawloon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Zamalek SC at home only, El Mokawloon away only.
Zamalek SC vs El Mokawloon head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Zamalek SC 3 · draws 6 · El Mokawloon 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | Zamalek SC | 0-0 | El Mokawloon | Egypt Premier League |
| 2024-07-29 | El Mokawloon | 2-1 | Zamalek SC | Premier League |
| 2023-09-25 | Zamalek SC | 1-1 | El Mokawloon | Premier League |
| 2023-07-04 | Zamalek SC | 6-1 | El Mokawloon | Cup |
| 2023-04-17 | Zamalek SC | 2-2 | El Mokawloon | Premier League |
| 2022-12-25 | El Mokawloon | 0-0 | Zamalek SC | Premier League |
| 2021-12-21 | El Mokawloon | 1-2 | Zamalek SC | Premier League |
| 2021-04-29 | Zamalek SC | 2-2 | El Mokawloon | Premier League |
| 2020-12-12 | El Mokawloon | 0-2 | Zamalek SC | Premier League |
| 2019-03-20 | El Mokawloon | 2-2 | Zamalek SC | Premier League |
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Before and after this match
- Zamalek SC, previous: Zamalek SC vs APR prediction
- El Mokawloon, previous: Enppi vs El Mokawloon prediction