Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad preview
In the upcoming match between Ghazl El Mehalla and Al Ittihad, the 1X2 probabilities show Al Ittihad at 57% to win, compared to Ghazl El Mehalla's 15%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 16% chance. Ghazl El Mehalla's recent form is poor, with 5 losses and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Al Ittihad has won 4 of their last 6.
Both teams to score has a 40% chance, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 38%. Ghazl El Mehalla is expected to score 0.68 goals, while Al Ittihad is forecasted to net 1.53. If Ghazl El Mehalla improves their form or if Al Ittihad underperforms, the outcome could differ from the predictions.
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad: model vs market
| Source | Ghazl El Mehalla | Draw | Al Ittihad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 28% | 57% |
| Market | 31% | 36% | 33% |
| Published | 27% | 34% | 39% |
| Edge | -15% | -8% | +24% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Al Ittihad below the model: +23.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.82, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al Ittihad, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ghazl El Mehalla | 2.89 | 3.00 | +0.11 |
| Draw | 2.52 | 2.52 | +0.00 |
| Al Ittihad | 2.77 | 2.80 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ghazl El Mehalla and Al Ittihad expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.20
- Attack rating (Ghazl El Mehalla / Al Ittihad)
- 0.74 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Ghazl El Mehalla / Al Ittihad)
- 1.24 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ghazl El Mehalla goals. Columns: Al Ittihad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 27% | 3.73 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Al Ittihad | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.52 |
| No | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ghazl El Mehalla or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| X2 (draw or Al Ittihad) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Ittihad win by 2+ | 31% | 3.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ghazl El Mehalla and Al Ittihad recent form
Ghazl El Mehalla
0W 1D 5L
Al Ittihad
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ghazl El Mehalla at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
Al Ittihad away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ghazl El Mehalla at home only, Al Ittihad away only.
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Ghazl El Mehalla 1 · draws 0 · Al Ittihad 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 1-0 | Al Ittihad | Egypt Premier League |
| 2026-03-02 | Al Ittihad | 2-0 | Ghazl El Mehalla | Egypt Premier League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- AL Masry vs Abu Qair Semad 2026-10-19
- Enppi v El Mokawloon — match page 2026-10-19
- Asyut Petrol vs Zamalek SC 2026-10-20
- Masr vs Future FC 2026-10-20
- Wadi Degla vs National Bank of Egypt — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- El Geish v Pyramids FC — match page 2026-10-20
- Al Ahly v Olympic El Qanah — match page 2026-10-21
- Ceramica Cleopatra vs Petrojet — team news & stats 2026-10-21
Before and after this match
- Ghazl El Mehalla, previous: Smouha SC – Ghazl El Mehalla, 2026-10-12
- Al Ittihad, previous: Al Ittihad – El Gouna FC, 2026-10-13