Petrojet vs Wadi Degla Prediction & Betting Tips 13/10/2026

Petrojet vs Wadi Degla: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Petrojet	Draw	Wadi Degla
Model	37%	27%	36%
Market	—	—	—
Published	37%	27%	36%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Petrojet and Wadi Degla expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.51Petrojet

1.49Wadi Degla

Total expected goals: 3.00
Attack rating (Petrojet / Wadi Degla): 1.43 / 1.17
Defence rating (Petrojet / Wadi Degla): 1.28 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Petrojet vs Wadi Degla score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 6.3% 5.5% 2.7% 1.4% 1 6.4% 12.3% 8.3% 4.1% 2.1% 2 5.7% 8.5% 6.3% 3.1% 1.6% 3 2.9% 4.3% 3.2% 1.6% 0.8% 4+ 1.5% 2.3% 1.7% 0.8% 0.4%

Rows: Petrojet goals. Columns: Wadi Degla goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Petrojet vs Wadi Degla goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 81%

Over 2.5 58%

Over 3.5 35%

Both teams to score: 61%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Petrojet vs Wadi Degla

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Petrojet	37%	2.68
	Draw	27%	3.77
	Wadi Degla	36%	2.76
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58%	1.73
	Under 2.5	42%	2.36
Both teams to score	Yes	61%	1.63
	No	39%	2.59
Double chance	1X (Petrojet or draw)	64%	1.57
	12 (either side)	73%	1.36
	X2 (draw or Wadi Degla)	63%	1.59
Handicap -1	Petrojet win by 2+	19%	5.39
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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