Updated

Egypt Premier League · Matchday 6

National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish

· Cairo International Stadium, Cairo

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was National Bank of Egypt to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
National Bank of EgyptDrawEl Geish

National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNational Bank of EgyptDrawEl Geish
Model38%33%29%
Market47%31%22%
Published45%31%24%
Edge-2%0%+2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish odds movement

Median bookmaker price on National Bank of Egypt, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 1.95Now 1.93 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
National Bank of Egypt1.951.93-0.02
Draw2.982.96-0.02
El Geish4.334.05-0.28

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

National Bank of Egypt and El Geish expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.13National Bank of Egypt
0.96El Geish
Total expected goals
2.09
Attack rating (National Bank of Egypt / El Geish)
1.10 / 0.79
Defence rating (National Bank of Egypt / El Geish)
1.21 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.7% 10.5% 5.7% 1.8% 0.5% 1 12.6% 14.8% 6.4% 2.1% 0.6% 2 7.9% 7.6% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3% 3 3.0% 2.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: National Bank of Egypt goals. Columns: El Geish goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 63%
Over 2.5 35%
Over 3.5 16%
Both teams to score
43%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2National Bank of Egypt45%2.23
Draw31%3.21
El Geish24%4.15
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535%2.87
Under 2.565%1.53
Both teams to scoreYes43%2.32
No57%1.76
Double chance1X (National Bank of Egypt or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)69%1.45
X2 (draw or El Geish)55%1.81
Handicap -1National Bank of Egypt win by 2+16%6.10
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

National Bank of Egypt and El Geish recent form

National Bank of Egypt 2W 1D 3L
El Geish 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

National Bank of Egypt at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

El Geish away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: National Bank of Egypt at home only, El Geish away only.

Expected lineups

National Bank of Egypt lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 27 Abdel Aziz El Balouti
  2. 12 Ahmed Meteb
  3. 20 Amir Medhat
  4. 18 K. Hamed
  5. 2 Mohamed Nasr
  6. 17 Mohamed Naser
  7. 14 Ali Hamdy
  8. 22 Anderson Ceará
  9. 29 Ahmed Yasser Rayan

Bench: Ahmed Sobhi Afifi, Sayed Abdallah Sika, Mostafa Shalaby, Khaled Shefo, S. Bouchama, Mostafa Adel, Mohamed Ashraf, Y. Annor, Mohamed Reda

El Geish lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Omar Radwan
  2. 3 Amro Tarek
  3. 4 Mohamed Fathallah
  4. 24 Z. Mohamed
  5. 8 Ahmed Abdel Rahman Zola
  6. 11 Karim Tarek
  7. 25 Ahmed Tarek
  8. 30 Mohamed Atef
  9. 12 Islam Mohareb

Bench: Momen Mahmoud, Khaled Stouhi, Ragab Omran, Mohamed Hany, Emad El Sayed, Khaled Abo Ziada, Mostafa Khawaga, I. Ouro-Agoro

National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: National Bank of Egypt 2 · draws 4 · El Geish 4.

National Bank of EgyptDrawsEl Geish
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-09El Geish1-0National Bank of EgyptEgypt Premier League
2025-08-29National Bank of Egypt0-0El GeishEgypt Premier League
2025-02-27El Geish2-2National Bank of EgyptPremier League
2024-04-17National Bank of Egypt0-1El GeishPremier League
2023-09-18El Geish2-0National Bank of EgyptPremier League
2023-06-23El Geish1-1National Bank of EgyptCup
2023-04-15National Bank of Egypt2-0El GeishPremier League
2022-12-20El Geish1-0National Bank of EgyptPremier League
2022-05-09El Geish1-1National Bank of EgyptPremier League
2021-10-25National Bank of Egypt3-0El GeishPremier League

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match