National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish Prediction & Betting Tips 13/10/2026

National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	National Bank of Egypt	Draw	El Geish
Model	38%	33%	29%
Market	—	—	—
Published	38%	33%	29%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

National Bank of Egypt and El Geish expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.13National Bank of Egypt

0.97El Geish

Total expected goals: 2.10
Attack rating (National Bank of Egypt / El Geish): 1.11 / 0.80
Defence rating (National Bank of Egypt / El Geish): 1.22 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.6% 10.5% 5.7% 1.8% 0.5% 1 12.6% 14.8% 6.5% 2.1% 0.6% 2 7.9% 7.6% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 3 3.0% 2.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: National Bank of Egypt goals. Columns: El Geish goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%

Over 1.5 63%

Over 2.5 35%

Over 3.5 16%

Both teams to score: 43%
No goals (0–0): 14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	National Bank of Egypt	38%	2.63
	Draw	33%	3.07
	El Geish	29%	3.39
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	35%	2.86
	Under 2.5	65%	1.54
Both teams to score	Yes	43%	2.31
	No	57%	1.76
Double chance	1X (National Bank of Egypt or draw)	71%	1.42
	12 (either side)	67%	1.48
	X2 (draw or El Geish)	62%	1.61
Handicap -1	National Bank of Egypt win by 2+	16%	6.13
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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